Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DID INDEED FIRE UP ALONG THE AREA OF BEST
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.  I EXPECT THAT TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SELECT PREFERRED AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT THIS WL CHANGE BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPR SHRTWV TROF
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS OF COUPLED JETS AT 200 MB WL
ALSO PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  AS A FIRST THOUGHT ON THE FORECAST...I HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER POPS MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATER FORECAST SHIFTS IF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MY PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ETA.  GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS LOOK
REASONABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PRESENTLY.

(PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

CCF
SGF EE 082/062 080/063 080 104444
JLN EE 081/062 080/063 080 104444
UNO EE 083/066 081/064 081 104444
VIH EE 085/068 082/066 082 104444

VESPER