Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
408 AM EDT FRI APR 9 1999

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT
OF THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND CHANCE OF CONVECTION SATURDAY...

CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF MAJORITY OF FA BY
DAYBREAK. WILL PROBABLY LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF NEW FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
NE ZONES WHERE TOR WATCH 141 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW CENTERED OVER FAR SE IA AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER... SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE NICE CLEARING OCCURRING
BEHIND COOL FRONT. WITH A LITTLE CAA EXPECTED BEHIND COOL FRONT
TODAY...HAVE LOOKED AT ETA AND NGM CU RULE MACROS ON PCGRIDDS. WHILE
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP WITH SOME HEATING. WILL PROBABLY KEEP PARTLY SUNNY
WORDING FOR NOW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE
DECENT WAA DEVELOPS AT H85 LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE WORDED
ACCORDINGLY. WHILE ETA IS A THE FASTEST WITH NEXT SYSTEM...FEEL
ADDING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR SATURDAY NECESSARY. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO TAKE NEARLY THE SAME TRACK AS TONIGHT/S LOW AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS EVEN BETTER THAN TONIGHT AS MOST OF FA SHOULD BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO AMENDED EXTENDED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR STORMS AND MADE SUNDAY DRY.

NGM AND AVN GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY REASONABLE.

SDF...NONE

MARIEN