Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
410 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999

MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTRMS COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI THIS
MORNING SHOULD MISS KENTUCKY.  PART OF CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF STATE BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD STAY WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH VERY WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER VORT MAX FROM THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
KY...EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

ETA HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTANT MODEL WITH NGM AND AVN NOW BEGINNING TO
FALL IN LINE WITH WEAKER ETA...AS NOTED IN NCEP DISCUSSION. ETA (AND
NGM) BRING VORT MAX ACROSS KENTUCKY TODAY WITH NGM INDICATING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. NGM LIKELY TOO
MOIST BUT WITH SYSTEM HAVING A HISTORY OF PRODUCING NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEM REASONABLE. WILL REMOVE EARLY
NIGHTITME WORDING FROM TONIGHT/S FORECAST AS FRONT NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY REMAINS A BIG QUESTION
MARK AND DEPENDS ON TIMING OF FRONT. FOR NOW WILL SLOW DOWN DECREASE
IN CLOUDS AND GO BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IF THUNDERSTORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THERE SHOULD BE
NO PROBLEM REACHING UPPER 80S. COOLER AIR ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT HOW MUCH COOLER DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS
DECREASE. FOR NOW WILL GO 80 TO 85.

.SDF...NONE.
SCHOLZ

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-290000-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1145 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A NORTH SOUTH
LINE THROUGH FRANKFORT KENTUCKY.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FROM DAMAGING WINDS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-290000-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1145 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A NORTH SOUTH
LINE THROUGH FRANKFORT KENTUCKY.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FROM DAMAGING WINDS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM THE NATIONAVL WEATHER SERVICE
OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.