Tornado Warning 20, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
145 PM CST THU JAN 21 1999

WHERE TO BEGIN?  DVLPG LOW OVR OK THIS AFTN TO MOV SLOWLY EWRD AND THRU
THE MRNG HRS. CURRENTLY LOW LVL FLOW RMNS OUT OF THE S OVR SE TX AND
SW LA. SHWRS INDCD ON 88-D LIFTG RAPIDLY NE. MSTR DEPTH CONTS TO INCRG
FM THIS AM. LATEST SOUNDING LCH 18Z INDCG CAPES ABV 2000 (J/KG) AND
HELICITY ABV 160 (M/S)2 AND LI OF -7. VAD LCH WNDS HAS SSW FLOW AT
50 KTS AROUND 6 KFT.

PREFRNTL SFC TROF MOVS INTO THE AREA TWRDS MIDNIGHT W/ CLRG SKIES
DRG THE EARLY AM HRS W/ SCTD STORM ACTVTY PRIOR TO PREFNTL TROF PSG. CLDS
TO MOV BACK INTO THE AREA RPDLY 09Z W/ STORMS DVLPG AND PUSHING E WHILE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS LIFT NE. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS PSBL ALG AND IN ADV
OF FRNTL BNDRY. MAIN FRNTL PSG XPCD AFTR 12Z. SHWRS LINGERING THROUGH
THE MRNG HRS W/ CLRG DRG AFTN HRS.

WILL USE ETA SOL THEREFORE... SFC LOW OVR OK DEEPENS AS ELONGATED UPR
LVL SHRTWV ENERGY AMPLIFIES H5 TROF PAT W/ PVA SWEEPING OVR THE AREA DRG
MRNG HRS. H3 JET MAX SWEEPS DOWN INTO THE AREA W/ DIFLUENCE DVLPG FM 06Z
TO 12Z. H3 AXIS TO MOV E OF AREA BY 12Z ON SAT.

CAPES AND HELICITY MAXIMUM TMRW MRNG W/ VALUES AROUND 1600 (J/KG) AND
HELICITY ABV 200 (M/S)2... BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE
NORTH OF THE AREA W/ MSTR PROFILE COMING TOGETHER OVR NRN LA AND AR.

FWC GUID ON OVRNGHT TEMPS ARE OFF... AS SFC FLOW TO RMN OUT OF THE S
AND DEW POINTS TO RMN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WNDS INCRG AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TMRW.

BPT BU 066/066 040/059 4400            LCH TU 067/067 040/059 4500
LFT TU 066/066 042/058 5600            AEX TU 064/060 038/054 4500

K. KUYPER

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-221000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CST THU JAN 21 1999

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
   AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL 900 PM...

...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT
   AND FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
LOUISIANA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH LOUISIANA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AND CHECK WITH
MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...ESPECIALLY BEFORE RETIRING
FOR THE EVENING. WEATHER RADIOS SHOULD BE SET TO ALERT.

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO FOR
LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED THROUGH
OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CST THU JAN 21 1999

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0508 PM    SULPHUR                   LA   WIND DAMAGE
01/21/99   CALCASIEU                      NON CONVECTIVE WINDS CAUSED
                                          STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ROOF.