Tornado Warning 6, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EST SAT JAN 2 1999

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT JUST WEST OF TLH WITH PRE-
FRONTAL SQUALL LINE JUST EAST OF TLH. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF KJAX 88D.
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OUT WITH EARLIER SQUALL LINE.
HOWEVER...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DPTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CWA WITH SOME REPORTING NEAR 70.
LATEST 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL WND GRATER THAN
50 KTS WITH SFC WNDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS KEEPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS
NOW LOCATED NORTH OF CWA. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CWA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SEVERE. JUDGING BY THE LATEST IR LOOP...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF CWA AND CNTRL FL ARE UNDER A GREATER THREAT NOW.  AS SECOND LINE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS APPROACHES THE CWA...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH SO ZONES FOR GA AND FL LOOK FINE. ONLY
AMENDMENTS THAT I FORESEE ATTM WILL DEPEND ON WHAT SPC DOES
WITH WW 6.

CWF...41008 HAS BEEN REPORTING SE WNDS FOR THE PAST FEW HRS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 WITH HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHT AT 8 FT.  SOUTH OF SGJ...EAST CAPE
BUOY IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WNDS OF 25 KNTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS NEAR 11 FT. WILL RECOMMEND AMENDING CWF TO REFLECT MORE
REALISTIC SEAS AS THE CURRENT  FORECAST HAS HIER SEAS NORTH OF
SGJ.

SANTOS

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-030800-

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST SAT JAN 2 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 3 AM...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST...REACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY 11 TO 1130 PM AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST
WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT
OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

PETERSON