Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EST SAT JAN 2 1999

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT JUST WEST OF TLH WITH PRE-
FRONTAL SQUALL LINE JUST EAST OF TLH. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF KJAX 88D.
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OUT WITH EARLIER SQUALL LINE.
HOWEVER...SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DPTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS CWA WITH SOME REPORTING NEAR 70.
LATEST 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL WND GRATER THAN
50 KTS WITH SFC WNDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS KEEPING STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS
NOW LOCATED NORTH OF CWA. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CWA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SEVERE. JUDGING BY THE LATEST IR LOOP...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF CWA AND CNTRL FL ARE UNDER A GREATER THREAT NOW.  AS SECOND LINE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS APPROACHES THE CWA...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH SO ZONES FOR GA AND FL LOOK FINE. ONLY
AMENDMENTS THAT I FORESEE ATTM WILL DEPEND ON WHAT SPC DOES
WITH WW 6.

CWF...41008 HAS BEEN REPORTING SE WNDS FOR THE PAST FEW HRS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 WITH HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHT AT 8 FT.  SOUTH OF SGJ...EAST CAPE
BUOY IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WNDS OF 25 KNTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS NEAR 11 FT. WILL RECOMMEND AMENDING CWF TO REFLECT MORE
REALISTIC SEAS AS THE CURRENT  FORECAST HAS HIER SEAS NORTH OF
SGJ.

SANTOS

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-030200-

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EST SAT JAN 2 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA EXCEPT FLAGLER COUNTY INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF FLAGLER COUNTY IN  NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
MOVING ACROSS  THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH
FLORIDA NEAR I-75 LATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.  THE SQUALL LINE WILL
THEN RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OFF SHORE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALMA IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO LEVY COUNTY IN NORTH FLORIDA WEST OF I-75.
THUNDERTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE AND THE LINE ITSELF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
MAIN SQUALL LINE TO THE WEST RACES EAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE BRINGING VERY HEAVY  RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS THE TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AND STAYED TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA.

FOR THE MARINE INTERESTS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE
TO HI WINDS AND SEAS. BOATERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR DUE
TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE TONIGHT.

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SANTOS