Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
148 PM EDT THU APR 15 1999

LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING INTO ERN NC WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AT ILM/LBT AS OF 17Z. LIFTED INDICES HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND -1 TO -2 OVER SRN CWA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE THRU LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
COLDFRONT NOW BACK IN THE TENN VALLEY. ETA SHOWS GOOD DIFFERENTIAL
H8-H3 DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND SFC CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AROUND
00Z ALONG WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PSBL SVR
THIS EVENING WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACRS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...LIMITING ADDITIONAL INSOLATION.  WOULD EXPECT OUR BEST
SVR THREAT MIGHT COME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE VIS SATPIX SHOW
SOME CLEARING. WILL STILL MENTION PSBL SVR FOR THE FIRST PERIOD AS
AREA IN SPC SLIGHT RISK. WOULD EXPECT RAPID CLEARING TOWARD MORNING
WITH A SUNNY...BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WARM FLOW.
NEXT QUESTION MARK COMES ON SATURDAY. NGM/ETA SHOW SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF STREAM FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO
OFF THE NC COAST SATURDAY. MEAN RH VALUES SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE WITH BOTH THE LCL POP SCHEME AND NGM MOS SPITTING OUT POPS
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY AND GO WITH
CHC POPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIER VALUES ON THE OUTER BANKS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...MOS AND LCL SCHEMES ARE CLOSE FOR THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS...BUT WITH ETA A BIT DRIER THAN NGM FOR SAT NIGHT...LCL MIN
TEMP SCHEME IS COOLER AND WILL LEAN THIS WAY FOR MINS.

COASTAL...STRONG WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE...BUT WITH WARM FRONT
NOW MOVING NORTH...WOULD EXPECT TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AS ILM GUSTING
TO 21 KT AND CHS TO 35 KT. WILL MAINTAIN STG SCA TONIGHT. WINDS SHOW
A DECREASE DURING FRIDAY...BUT ETA 10-METER WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SCA THRU SATURDAY.

.MHX...SCA SNDS AND CSTL WTRS THIS AFTN

COLnLINS