Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT (325 PM CDT) WED JUN 2 1999

...CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN IS EXTENT OF TSTM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS ON FRI...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER TRI-STATE AREA WITH GOOD SFC HEATING ONGOING
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S. CWA IS IN SLIGHT OR MOD RISK AREA. DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. AWAITING TRIGGER APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

INITIALIZATION OF MODELS THIS AM INDICATING ETA ONCE AGAIN SEEMED TO
BE BEST ON SPECIFICS...BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT. SO I AM STAYING ONCE
AGAIN WITH IT. PATTERN FOR THIS EVENING IS PANNING OUT AS INDICATED
BY MODELS YESTERDAY. FORMER CUT-OFF 5H LOW OFF S CA IS NOW S/W
MOVING NE ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO. ASSOCIATED 25H JET MAX ON N SIDE OF
SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVING NE ACROSS S NEW MEXICO. E CO AND W KS SOON
TO BE UNDER FRONT LEFT. ETA SHOWS THETAE RIDGE LYING N-S ALONG KS/CO
BORDER THIS EVENING AND NEARLY SIMULTANEOUSLY CO-LOCATED 70H
UVV/POS-OMEGA MAX. MOD TO HI PWS...RAPIDLY DECAYING CIN...INCREASING
LIS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALL SEEM TO IMPLY A VERY LIVELY AND
STORMY EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. APPEARS 5H
TROUGH TO PASS OVERHEAD SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THINK WEATHER WILL
PROGRESS STEADILY FROM W-E ACROSS CWA AND BE CLEAR OF CWA BY
DAYBREAK. POSSIBLY SOME LEFT IN E SO WILL RETAIN 20 POPS THERE FOR
EARLY 2ND PD.

WEAKER VORT TO COME INTO CWA FROM S/W LATE THU MAY TRIGGER A FEW
TSTMS BUT EXPECT MOSTLY A NON-WEATHER EVENTFUL EVENING THU. UPPER
MAJOR TROUGH OVER INTER-MT AREA REDEEPENS THU NIGHT-FRI FROM STRONG
VORT MAX MOVING DOWN WEST COAST. AT SAME TIME RIDGE BUILDS OVER CEN
US. RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING HEAT LATE THU/FRI OVER CWA WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDINESS.

BRIEFLY IN EXTENDED VORT MAX MOVES NE OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH INTO CEN
PLAINS LATE SAT AND LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERE WX EVENT AFTER
TONIGHT. THEN PDS OF SCT TSTMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS APPLY FOR REST
OF EXTENDED.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

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COZ092-KSZ041-042-030600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT WED JUN 2 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM CDT) FOR
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
COLORADO...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.  ALSO...LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

TRIBUNE...LEOTI...SELKIRK...MARIENTHAL...LYDIA...HORACE...CHEYENNE
WELLS...AND KIT CARSON ARE TOWNS INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PLANS FOR SHELTER IN THE EVENT A
WARNING IS ISSUED.  THE SAFEST PLACE IS A BASEMENT UNDER A STURDY
PIECE OF FURNITURE.  IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM IS THE BEST PLACE.  PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

ENTWISTLE

COZ092-KSZ041-042-030600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT WED JUN 2 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM CDT) FOR
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
COLORADO...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.  ALSO...LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

TRIBUNE...LEOTI...SELKIRK...MARIENTHAL...LYDIA...HORACE...CHEYENNE
WELLS...AND KIT CARSON ARE TOWNS INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PLANS FOR SHELTER IN THE EVENT A
WARNING IS ISSUED.  THE SAFEST PLACE IS A BASEMENT UNDER A STURDY
PIECE OF FURNITURE.  IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...A SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM IS THE BEST PLACE.  PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

ENTWISTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT WED JUN 02 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    JOES                      CO    .88 INCH HAIL
06/02/99   YUMA

SULLIVAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT WED JUN 02 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    JOES                      CO    .88 INCH HAIL
06/02/99   YUMA

SULLIVAN