Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 1999

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE POPS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER TONIGHT...CONCERN SHIFTS TO TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE GLD
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
MONTANA WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THE MODEL CHOICE HAS SHIFTED FROM THE ETA TO THE AVN SINCE THE ETA
SURFACE INITIALIZATION WAS OUT TO LUNCH AND CONTINUED TO SHOW NO
BASIS IN REALITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN IS WARMER
INITIALLY THAN THE NGM MOS...WHICH LOOKS GOOD SINCE LAST NIGHTS
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ALONG WITH TODAYS HIGHS WERE ON THE HIGHER END. AVN
AND NGM TEMPS COME IN LINE IN THE LATER PERIODS..SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE IN THOSE PERIODS.

THE COLD FRONT IS DUE THROUGH THE GLD AREA AROUND 00Z WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODIFIED AND INTERPOLATED SOUNDINGS FOR THE GLD AREA HAVE
CAPES IN THE 2000 RANGE WITH LI/S AROUND -8 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GOOD SHEAR...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST FROM THE WEST COAST
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO BRING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN...MOVE FURTHER EAST...AND SEND SEVERAL S/WVS UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS.

.GLD...TORNADO WATCH TIL 9 PM MDT FOR CO ZONES 90>92.

LOCKHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0508 PM    5 N COLBY                 KS    TORNADO
05/22/99   THOMAS

SVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0508 PM    5 N COLBY                 KS    TORNADO
05/22/99   THOMAS

SVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0539 PM    16 NNW SEIBERT            CO    75 MPH TSTM GUST
05/22/99   KIT CARSON

SVEN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0544 PM    JOES                      CO    .75 INCH HAIL
05/22/99   YUMA

SVEN

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      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
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