Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 AM MDT (310 AM CDT) SAT MAY 22 1999

...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS...

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTH-SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE
TROF OVER EASTERN COLORADO. CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA MOVES LITTLE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH FAVORED MODEL
BEING THE ETA WITH THE AVN A CLOSE SECOND. THE ETA INITIALIZED BEST
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ALSO THE ETA SEEMS TO BE DOING A MUCH
BETTER JOB WITH MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND COLORADO
TROF AS WELL AS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF CLOSED CA LOW. ALSO ETA ALONG
WITH AVN DO A GOOD JOB WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR HIGH
PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CA INTO THE FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO HELPS BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  A S/W TROF TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES
EAST WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY A STRONG MID LEVEL S/W
MOVING THROUGH CWA MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND ESTIMATED CAPES OF 1500-2500 COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
QUICKLY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA FROM THE WEST
PROVIDING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
AS WELL AS PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST U.S. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO FWC MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS DUE TO EFFECTS OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. ALSO WENT CLOSE TO FWC MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY AND DUE
TO AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS