Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Goodland, KS

GOODLAND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

POPS ARE GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE CHOSEN ETA/ECMWF BLEND FOR PERIOD 1 THROUGH DAY 5 PORTION OF
PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TO NGM FOR PERIOD 1 BASED ON
INITIALIZATION OF MASS AND MOISTURE.

SCENARIO IS BEING SET WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE AIDING THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER WESTERN U.S. RIDGE.  AT
1940Z CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY FROM KLBF TO KSNY.  EXPECT TSRA TO INITIATE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWFA AND SOME TYPE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO MOVE ALONG THE KS/NEB
STATE LINE OVERNIGHT.  OTHER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CLUSTER
AS NUMEROUS OLD BOUNDARIES LIE OVER THE CWFA.  A SECOND MCS COULD
BEGIN IN THE EASTERN CWFA AND MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

LOWEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE IN SOUTHWEST CWFA WHERE 700 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 14C...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WITH
TSRA TO THE NORTH COULD COOL THAT AREA ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO
SURVIVE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 2.0 INCHES AROUND KHLC TO
3.4 INCHES IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE
BASED ON WHERE THE STORMS GO.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF MCS ACTIVITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW
RETURNING.  THIS SHOULD COOL TEMPS A BIT FROM TODAYS MAXES.
HEIGHTS LOWER ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
FLATTENED FLOW WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY GENERATION PROGGED TO OCCUR
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.  BELIEVE MOST STORMS WILL BE WEST OF
THE COLORADO PORTION OF THE CWFA...BUT CONVERGENT TROUGH WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE POP.

SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
WITH MAX TEMPS COOLER BY A CATEGORY OR SO ON MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY.
LOWS BASED ON PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.

IN THE EXTENDED...BLENDED ECMWF AND UKMET FOR PROGS.  CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.  CHANCE TSRA FOR COLORADO COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCE ALL OF CWFA WEDNESDAY.  COULD STILL HAVE SOME
LEFTOVER SHOWERS THURSDAY...BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ALL THE
WAY TOWARD RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE ENERGY EJECTS FROM
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CWFA.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE

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