Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Goodland, KS

GOODLAND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

POPS ARE GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE CHOSEN ETA/ECMWF BLEND FOR PERIOD 1 THROUGH DAY 5 PORTION OF
PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TO NGM FOR PERIOD 1 BASED ON
INITIALIZATION OF MASS AND MOISTURE.

SCENARIO IS BEING SET WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE AIDING THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER WESTERN U.S. RIDGE.  AT
1940Z CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY FROM KLBF TO KSNY.  EXPECT TSRA TO INITIATE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWFA AND SOME TYPE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO MOVE ALONG THE KS/NEB
STATE LINE OVERNIGHT.  OTHER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CLUSTER
AS NUMEROUS OLD BOUNDARIES LIE OVER THE CWFA.  A SECOND MCS COULD
BEGIN IN THE EASTERN CWFA AND MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

LOWEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE IN SOUTHWEST CWFA WHERE 700 MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 14C...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WITH
TSRA TO THE NORTH COULD COOL THAT AREA ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO
SURVIVE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 2.0 INCHES AROUND KHLC TO
3.4 INCHES IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE
BASED ON WHERE THE STORMS GO.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF MCS ACTIVITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW
RETURNING.  THIS SHOULD COOL TEMPS A BIT FROM TODAYS MAXES.
HEIGHTS LOWER ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
FLATTENED FLOW WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY GENERATION PROGGED TO OCCUR
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.  BELIEVE MOST STORMS WILL BE WEST OF
THE COLORADO PORTION OF THE CWFA...BUT CONVERGENT TROUGH WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE POP.

SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
WITH MAX TEMPS COOLER BY A CATEGORY OR SO ON MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY.
LOWS BASED ON PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.

IN THE EXTENDED...BLENDED ECMWF AND UKMET FOR PROGS.  CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.  CHANCE TSRA FOR COLORADO COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCE ALL OF CWFA WEDNESDAY.  COULD STILL HAVE SOME
LEFTOVER SHOWERS THURSDAY...BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ALL THE
WAY TOWARD RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE ENERGY EJECTS FROM
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CWFA.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NORTH-
SOUTH TROUGH ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUED TO DRAW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH OTHER
STORMS FORMING ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
REGION WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ALONG AND NORTH OF A HILL CITY
TO GOODLAND KANSAS TO FLAGLER COLORADO LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO...DUNDY COUNTY NEBRASKA...AND
CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS EXISTS ALONG THE NEBRASKA-
KANSAS BORDER WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEAT OVER THE SAME
AREA.

LAMMERS

COZ090-KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
552 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM
CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM CDT)
AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO...YUMA.
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW. IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS THE WATCH INCLUDES CHEYENNE...DECATUR...
GRAHAM...NORTON...RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...SHERMAN AND THOMAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ALONG A
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY BETWEEN GOODLAND AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA. OTHER STORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA AS WELL.

IF TORNADOES ARE SIGHTED MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES ABANDON THEM AND
MOVE TO SAFER SHELTER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS... OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

LAMMERS

COZ090-KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
552 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM
CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT (1 AM CDT)
AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO...YUMA.
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW. IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS THE WATCH INCLUDES CHEYENNE...DECATUR...
GRAHAM...NORTON...RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...SHERMAN AND THOMAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ALONG A
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY BETWEEN GOODLAND AND MCCOOK NEBRASKA. OTHER STORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA AS WELL.

IF TORNADOES ARE SIGHTED MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES ABANDON THEM AND
MOVE TO SAFER SHELTER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS... OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

LAMMERS

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NORTH-
SOUTH TROUGH ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUED TO DRAW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH OTHER
STORMS FORMING ALONG THE COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE
REGION WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ALONG AND NORTH OF A HILL CITY
TO GOODLAND KANSAS TO FLAGLER COLORADO LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO...DUNDY COUNTY NEBRASKA...AND
CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS EXISTS ALONG THE NEBRASKA-
KANSAS BORDER WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECDTED TO REPEAT OVER THE SAME
AREA.

LAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
835 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 PM    6 SSE MC COOK             NE    .75 INCH HAIL
06/26/99   RED WILLOW

0820 PM    8 SW MC COOK              NE    1 INCH HAIL
06/26/99   RED WILLOW

0826 PM    MC COOK                   NE    1 INCH HAIL
06/26/99   RED WILLOW

SVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
835 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 1999

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 PM    6 SSE MC COOK             NE    .75 INCH HAIL
06/26/99   RED WILLOW

0820 PM    8 SW MC COOK              NE    1 INCH HAIL
06/26/99   RED WILLOW

0826 PM    MC COOK                   NE    1 INCH HAIL
06/26/99   RED WILLOW

SVEN