Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

MY PRAYERS GO OUT TO THOSE IN KS/OK. WHAT AN INCREDIBLE DISPLAY BY
MOTHER NATURE.

...INITIAL CONCERN IN THIS AM FCST IS POTENTIAL? FOR SVR WX TODAY
AND GENERALLY RAIN CHCS THRU NEXT 24/36 HOURS...

WV IMAGERY IN THIS SHOWS A MONSTER JET DIVING DOWN BACK OF DEEPENING
WRN TROF. ETA IS SUPERIOR IN THIS FEATURE WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A MORE
SRN POSITION OF UPPER LO AS IT FORMS TODAY. ETA WAS ONLY MDL HINTING
AT THIS SOLN LAST NIGHT & GIVEN SAT DEPICTION AS WELL AS THE HGHT FALLS
PATTERN FROM ANALYSIS...THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

CAUGHT A BREAK YSTY EVENING AS DRYPUNCH PUSHED NE THRU AREA QUICK ENUF
TO ESCAPE MOST SVR WX. W/ NO RADAR...THINGS COULD HAVE BEEN ALOT MORE
INTERESTING. LNX/GLD/DDC 88DS SHOWING SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO WRN
PARTS OF CWA ATT. SFC MAP AT 06Z HAD MAIN LO PRES IN SC SD W/ SECONDARY
LO IN ERN CO. ETA ALSO BETTER IN DEALING W/ THIS LOW...ALTHO NONE OF
THE MDLS HIT THE 6HR PROG WELL AT ALL. WITH WEIGHT FCST TOWARD ETA
ALTHO SFC LO POSITION WILL PROB BE AN ETA/AVN BLEND.

WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER SYS AND INTENSE SFC LO SOMEWHERE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...AM CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SVR ACTIVITY AS SOME DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CWA...PARTICULARLY SE 1/2. NONE
OF MDLS BRING FRONT THRU AREA UNTIL EVENING. WE/VE ALREADY HAD 2 UPPER
LOW TORNADOES THIS SPRING...DO I HEAR 3. AT ANY RATE...SHRA/TSRA ACTY
SEEMS LIKELY TODAY. WILL RANGE TEMPS IN 60S...TO AROUND 70 NC KS. GNRLY
BREEZY WITH SE WINDS 15/25.

TONIGHT...WRAPAROUND PRECIP WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS UPPER LO
PROGRESSES EAST THRU PLAINS. AFTER A MENTION OF EVENING THUNDER...WILL
LEAVE OCNL -RA IN FCST OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MENTION WINDY
CONDITIONS AS NW WINDS KICK IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. LOWS FROM 45 NW 50
SE.

WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP A 60% CHC OF SHOWERS FOR NRN AREAS (40% SOUTH)
AS UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY EDGES NE TO AROUND SUX. MUCH COOLER W/ HIGHS
FROM 55 NORTH TO 60 NC KS. LOOKS TO BE VERY WINDY ACROSS AREA & WILL
RANGE NW WINDS FROM 25/35 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THU FOR EXTENDED...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FRI/SAT AS
HOPEFULLY UPPER LO WILL BE JUST FAR ENUF EAST TO SPARE US. WILL LOWER
TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY THU/FRI W/ SOME WARMING BY WEEKEND.

.GID...NONE

GURNEY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-DDHHMM-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PART OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

SPOTTER ACTION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA STATE
LINE.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND END
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.