Alert archive / Arizona / Tornado Warnings in 1999

Tornado Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 15, 1999Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this tornado warning at Sep 15, 1999, 5:12 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 33 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 15, 1999, 5:12 PM MST (00:12 UTC)
Expired
Sep 15, 1999, 5:45 PM MST
In force
33 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 15, 5:13 PM MSTTornado F0Dewey, AZ
Sep 15, 5:23 PM MSTHail 1.75Dewey, AZFor the second day in a row, vertical wind shear combined with monsoon moisture to produce several instances of severe weather. Hail did significant damage in Prescott Valley and in Dewey, with newspaper accounts indicate widespread damage to cars and skylight

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 1999-09-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 419 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 1999-09-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 64 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1527 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KFLG 160013 RRA
TORFLG
AZC025-160045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
512 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 545 PM MST

* AT 511 PM MST...  DOPPLER RADAR AND SPOTTERS INDICATED A TORNADO
  12 MILES EAST OF PRESCOTT OR 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEWEY...
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
  DEWEY AT 520 PM MST

A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! GO TO THE BASEMENT! IF A BASEMENT IS
NOT AVAILABLE...GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!

JD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Sep 15, 2:50 PM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 15, 2:50 PM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING LATER
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...WHILE CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIM...WITH SCATTERED STORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE RIM COUNTRY. A DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ALONG A
LINE IN THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
WITH A SMALL GROUP COMPONENT TO THE NORTH. NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE
GOTTEN OUT OF HAND YET. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A DIURNAL TENDENCY TOWARD CLEARING. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PRETTY LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY AGAIN
IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS THE REALLY CLEAR OUT.

MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH MORE OF A
DIURNAL TENDENCY...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURDAY NIGHT
WHILE EXPECTING STORMS TO END LATE. BY FRIDAY...RH IS HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND RIM COUNTRY FOR CHANCE POPS MENTIONED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IN THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE APPEARS TO
LINGER IN THE FLG CWA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH DAY 5.

PEREZ

.FLG...NONE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 15, 5:08 PM MST, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
508 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    PRESCOTT VALLEY           AZ   2 INCH HAIL
09/15/99   YAVAPAI                        SKYLIGHT DAMAGE

JD
Local storm report, Sep 15, 5:08 PM MST, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
508 PM MST WED SEP 15 1999

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    PRESCOTT VALLEY           AZ   2 INCH HAIL
09/15/99   YAVAPAI                        SKYLIGHT DAMAGE

JD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 5:42 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai33 min
Sep 16, 11:15 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino30 min
Sep 16, 11:33 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino47 min
Sep 16, 12:19 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai41 min
Sep 16, 12:35 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino45 min
Sep 16, 12:42 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino48 min
Sep 16, 1:17 PM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino33 min
Sep 16, 1:59 PM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino16 min
Sep 16, 2:24 PM MSTTornado WarningFGZCoconino11 min
Sep 16, 2:30 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo50 min
Sep 16, 2:54 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai46 min
Sep 16, 4:16 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai49 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Arizona, 1999Every tornado warning in 1999Tornadoes in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.