Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 1999

H5 HGTS FALL AS UPR LOW OVR THE PAC NW MOVS N OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY 12Z
SUNDAY. THERMODYNAMICS RICH ACRS SD AND SRN ND BUT MOST OF UPR
DYNAMICS FARTHER TO THE NW OVR MT. ETA WANTS TO HOLD VRT MOTN ACRS
SRN ND WHILE NGM ADVECTS TO THE NE ACRS CWFA. VSB STLT LOOP HAS
ESSENTIALLY A CLR SKY OVR SRN 2/3 OF ERN ND AND ADJ PARTS OF NW MN
AND SHOULD BE A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. BEST PRES FALLS WERE OCCURRING IN
NE ND AHEAD OF WM FNT. PRES FALL CNTR HAS BEEN MOVG N/NE. 88D HAS HAD
ISOLD CELLS FORM AHEAD CLR CAPPED AREA IN NRN 1/3 OF CWFA.  VAD WNDS
OFF OF NEARBY 88D DOES NOT SUGGEST THE H8 SPEED CONVERGENCE INDICATED
BY THE ETA. SO NGM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ABV SCENARIO
AND IS PREFERRED. 16Z BIS SNDG SHOWS GOOD CAP WITH ABT 95F SFC TEMP
NEEDED TO BREAK CAP AT BIS. WM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID BREAKING CAP AT L
WER TEMPS. SFC LOW E OF DIK AND MOVG E AT GOOD
CLIP. LOOK FOR TSTRMS TO FIRE IN CNTRL ND AND MOV NE INTO ERN ND LATE
AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SHOULD BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH HIGH DWPTS.
LITTLE COOLER FOR SAT AS TROF/WND SHFT WL MOV INTO ERN ND BY SAT
MORN. MID LVL CLD DECK EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN FOR SAT.

.EXTENDED...MODELS ADVERTISING A RETURN TO A ZONAL MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY TUESDAY. H850 TEMPS COOL DOWN TO NEAR 10C FOR MONDAY...AND
RECOVER INTO THE TEENS THEREAFTER. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL ON MON...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST
OVER FA ON MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND COOL AIR ALOFT TO SPELL
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR TUE/WED. WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS/T-STORMS PFOR
TUE/WED AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

.FGF...SVR TSRA WATCH #470 TIL 10 PM CDT.
HOPPES/DK