Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT WED JUN 09 1999

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE...CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES EARLY THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM....
SFC LOW LOCATED NR THE ND/MN/SD BORDER WITH WARM FRONT EAST TO NR A
DTL-PKD LINE. MAIN BOUNDARY FOR INTIAL SVR CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST
AND WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF AXN INTO NW IA.  MAIN FRONT LOCATED
FURTHER WEST IN ERN SD.  ATMOS IN FAR SE CWFA...FFM AREA...VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MODIFIED CAPES BASED ON CURRENT T/TD AT FFM ABV 4000.
ADAP SHOWS LI -10 AND NO CAP.  WITH FRONT STILL NOT THROUGH THINK ISOLD
SVR PSBL THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY PSBL SVR IN ZONES FOR PKD-DTL
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM SFC LOW INTO FAR NW MN
AND THIS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. 88D SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF 70H
TROF IN ERN ND AND EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND END EARLY THIS
EVENING IN ND AND BY MIDNIGHT IN NW MN.  WILL LEAVE DVL ZONE DRY TONIGHT
AS BIS 88D SHOWS PCPN SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA SHORTLY.

.LONGER TERM...
WILL USE ETA/AVN THIS FCST PACKAGE.  50H VORT MAX MOVES ENE THRU ND
INTO MB TONIGHT...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
CLEARING SKIES.  WILL NOTICE LOWER DEW PTS ON THURSDAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO WRN ND.  A FEW CU ON THURSDAY....O/W MSTLY SUNNY.
FWC/FAN MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

NEXT 50H SYSTEM TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF CWFA...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
KS ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...70H LOW FURTHER NORTH IN SD...SO DO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY SPLY SOUTH CWFA.  SHOULD BE DRY
THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PCPN REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH.

.EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT IN BRUSHING CWFA
WITH POSSIBLE PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. SHORTWAVE
PULLS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SAT MORNING THAT NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR SAT. WITH
500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWFA...NO
PCPN EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET PCPN GOING.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPS REMAIN
FAIRLY CONS"ISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED -- HOLDING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

.FGF...NONE.

RIDDLE/NG