Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 1999

.SHORT TERM...
WILL MAKE THIS QUICK DUE TO ISOLD SVR WX IN CWFA.  SFC LOW LOCATED BTWN
DVL/BIS ATTM MOVING NNE WITH LOWEST PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING SFC LOW
WILL BE SW OF YWG BY 00Z.  AVN IS THE PREFERRED MODEL. WARM FRONT LIFTED
NORTH AND LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DVL TO NORTH OF GFK...WITH
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG IT.  DRY LINE SURGE MOVING INTO WRN
MN...WITH SATELLITE SHOWING CU FROM THIS LINE NR A CKN-DTL-AXN LINE.
NOT MUCH ACTIVITY WITH THIS YET...BUT STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SOON.  IN DRY SLOT AREA...
GFK-FAR UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STORMS...IF ANY...WILL FORM.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT EARLY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BACKWASH CLOUDS.
COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN ERN ND BUT ATTM WILL GO DRY AS UPR
LOW DRIFTS NORTH KEEPING MUCH OF THE BACKWASH SHOWERS IN WRN/CNTRL ND.

.LONGER TERM...
MONDAY WILL BE A QUIET BUT STILL WARM DAY AS AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE.  FWC/FAN MOS LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT 50H UPPER TROF DROPS INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH NEXT
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BEND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL CAUSE
THE NEXT SFC LOW FORM IN WRN NE WITH AVN TRACKING IT NNE INTO CNTRL ND
BY 72 HRS (12Z WED) LIKE THE PRESENT SYSTEM.  THIS LOOKS GOOD.

WILL BRING IN LOW POP ON TUESDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION...O/W DRY.

.EXTENDED...
PRECIP WILL BE ADDED TO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF WESTERN TROF. GOOD WAA AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD ENABLE TSRA TO BREAK OUT DURING NIGHT...WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING WED AS MID LEVEL FLO FLATTENS OUT SOMEWHAT BEHIND IT.
QUESTION AFTER THAT SYSTEM IS EXTENT OF PATTERN CHANGE. NOGAPS/CANADIAN
AND TO A SLOWER/LESSER EXTENT MRF PUSH STUBBORN EASTERN RIDGE A TAD
EAST AFTER MID-WEEK SYSTEM. THIS WOULD POINT TOWARD MOISTURE AXIS AND
OVERNIGHT MCS FORMATION TO OCCUR MORE OVER MO/IA TOWARD GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF NRN PLAINS. IN THIS REGIME...WEAK HI PRES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA...KEEPING IT DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE
THU-FRI.

.FGF...TOR WATCH NORTH OF A VALLEY CITY-FARGO-WADENA LINE UNTIL 6 PM
CDT.

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MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-062000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...

...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TOWARD THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY THIS EVENING.  A DRY LINE OR SURFACE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR FARGO TO WEST OF ALEXANDRIA AT 11 AM. THIS
DRY LINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE.

AREA OF CONCERN...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FOR
THAT PART OF MINNESOTA EAST OF A BAUDETTE TO THIEF RIVER FALLS TO FERGUS
FALLS LINE.  THIS INCLUDES PARK RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI.   THERE IS A
DIMINISHED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TIME...1 PM UNTIL 6 PM.

TYPE OF HAZARD...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THESE STORMS ONCE THEY FORM WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

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