Tornado Warning 4, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 1999

LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF CWFA.  SFC MAP SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE IN NCNTRL SD JUST WEST OF MOBRIDGE WITH WARM FRONT TO NORTH OF
FARGO TO NR PKD.  SE WINDS FEEDING 70 DEW PTS NORTH INTO SE CWFA. THIS
MOIST AIR OVERRDING WARM FRONT CAUSING LOW CLDS TO FORM JMS-GFK
AREA....AND EXPECT CLD BAND TO SATURATE AND START DEVELOLPING PCPN
SSON.

MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WILL BE SFC TROF/DRY LINE MOVING EAST AND
NORTHEAST INTO FAR SRN RICHLAND CO AND FAR NE SD SD AT 15Z. SISSESTON
ASOS DEW PT DROPPED 3C BTWN 14 AND 15Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE SW
INDICATING THIS DRY LINE PASSAGE.

LOOKING AT 12Z ETA SOUNDINGS AND RUC MODEL...LOOKS LIKE INTIATING OF
TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTN IN FAR-FFM CORRIDOR THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.  CAPES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE WITH LI TO -10 SOUTH
OF WARM FRONT AND EAST OF DRY LINE THIS AFTN. LARGEST THREAT FOR SVR IN
MN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS AND 85H WINDS GREATER...WITH MORE ISOLD
ECNTRL/NE ND. LOOKS LIKE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAIN THREAT AS LOW LEVELS
WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR QUICK STORM MOVEMENT.

WILL CHECK OVER ZONES AND CURRENT TEMPS...BUT APPEAR LITTLE CHANGE
NEEDED ATTM.   WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BY NOON.

.FGF...NONE.

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.FGF...NONE.

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MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-062000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...

...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TOWARD THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY THIS EVENING.  A DRY LINE OR SURFACE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR FARGO TO WEST OF ALEXANDRIA AT 11 AM. THIS
DRY LINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE.

AREA OF CONCERN...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FOR
THAT PART OF MINNESOTA EAST OF A BAUDETTE TO THIEF RIVER FALLS TO FERGUS
FALLS LINE.  THIS INCLUDES PARK RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI.   THERE IS A
DIMINISHED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TIME...1 PM UNTIL 6 PM.

TYPE OF HAZARD...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THESE STORMS ONCE THEY FORM WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

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