Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
304 AM CST SAT APR 3 1999

CHALLENGING FCST AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH BOTH FRONTAL POSITION AND
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER KS KEY PLAYERS IN TODAYS SENSIBLE
WX.  08Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING COLD FRONT FROM JUST EAST OF KLWD
SWWD ACROSS THE KC METRO AREA.  TEMPS AS OF 2 AM RANGING FROM THE
L50S ACROSS THE NRN SUBURBS TO U60S HERE AT KEAX.  LOCATION OF
BOUNDARY CRITICAL TO TEMPERATURE FCST AGAIN TODAY...WITH A STRONG
GRADIENT EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NWRN MO/NERN KS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...FAVORED AVN MODEL TODAY WRT ITS HANDLING OF SFC FRONT AND
MSL FIELDS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE AVN/ETA FOR THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.  PER THIS REASONING...FRONT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NW LATER THIS AFTN...ABOUT AS FAR N AS A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF
KSTJ TO BETHANY...AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NERN KS.  AIRMASS ALONG AND
S OF THE BOUNDARY PROGGED BY THE ETA/AVN MODELS TO BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE...WITH ETA FORECAST CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LIS OF -4 TO
-6 BY 00Z.  HOWEVER...KEY TO THIS DESTABILIZATION THIS PM IS THE
ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR SW AND THE POSSIBILITY THE ATMOS MAY
BECOME WORKED OVER LATER THIS MORNING.  QUITE A BIT OF POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS KMHK...WITH LATEST KEAX
TRENDS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE IN
THE PAST HOUR.  WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
ACTIVITY WORKS TOWARDS MY NWRN CWA.  AS A RESULT...CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT SVR WX DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON DURATION OF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION.

NEVERTHELESS...PRECIP CHANCES QUITE HIGH TODAY...AND LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL WORDING THE WAY TO GO TODAY WRT PRECIP FCST.  WILL TREND
TEMPS FROM NEAR 60 IN FAR NW MO TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE SRN
CWA.

AVN/ETA MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN BRINGING FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF
CWA LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATES NNE THROUGH THE AREA
AND THEN N TO NNW INTO THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW.  PRECIP SHOULD END FROM
W TO E THIS EVENING WITH STRONG SUBIDENCE BEHIND VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DOWN A TAD PER LATEST FAN/FWC
GUIDANCE...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER FAN NUMBERS.  EASTER
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT WITH ONLY SOME AFTN CU AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

72 HOUR PROGS OFF THE AVN MODEL POINT TO INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR
MONDAY.  COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 SHORTWAVE PROGGED
TO ROTATE NEWD TOWARDS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH ASSOCIATED H3 JET STREAK.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS CWA OR JUST SOUTH AS WELL.
AT ANY RATE...SOMETHING TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

.EAX...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HUDSON