Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

...PBLM WL BE SVR WX THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE...

ELEVATED SVR TSTMS ALRDY POPPING IN NRN ZNS AND PER COORD WITH SPC
HV WS300 FOR THAT AREA WITH WT301 FOR SRN ZNS E OF A GCK/LBL LINE.
MID AND UPR WND PROFILE NOT GREAT TO S AND SE WHERE MAY SEE SOME
IMPINGEMENT BY DRY LINE BULGE S OF SFC LO BUT CANT ARGUE WITH CHC
FOR A TOR GIVEN DVLPMT OF DRY LINE SUPERCELLS.  DO BLV IT WLD ONLY
BRIEFLY BE TORNADIC AND TURN RAPIDLY HP.

ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT HI SBCAPES ALG DRY
LINE AND H5 S/WV MOVG THRU RGN THIS EVE THO MOST ACTIVITY SHD BE OVR
AS SBSDNC BHND THE WV TAKES OVER.

IN LTR PDS MANY QSTNS ABOUT CLRG AS SFC LOW TRACKS S AND THEN E ALG
KS/OK BRDR TNGT ALLOWING COOL SURGE TO SINK S ACRS ALL MY ZNS BY
MRNG.  AFT THAT COOL HIGH DOMINATES THRU FRI WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP FRI NGT INTO SAT.  ALTHO RETURN FLOW WL LIKELY PUT THE
JUICE BACK IN PLACE BY SATURDAY A STRONG WARM H5 RDG SETS UP ACROSS
THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS EFFECTIVELY KILLING ANY CHC FOR MUCH MORE
THAN POP CORN CNVCTN.  NGTLY CNVCTN MOVG E OUT OF ROCKIES IS A
PSBLTY BUT THATS A WAYS DOWN THE ROAD AND RATHER DOUBTFUL ATTM.

FOR XTND FCST HV NOT HAD MUCH TIME TO LOOK DUE TO ONGOING SVR THUS
WL NOT CHG MUCH FM MRF AND FMR.  DEATH RIDGE OVR PLAINS SAT AND SUN
WITH NW FLOW DVLPG FM SUN EVE ONWARD SO CANNOT DISCOUNT CHC FOR NW
FLOW STORMS IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE...OR SW MONSOON COMING UP ACRS NM
DUE TO CUT OFF H5 LOW IN FAR SW US.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 054/076 056/083 056 700
GCK 053/076 055/084 055 700
EHA 053/075 055/085 057 700
LBL 055/077 057/085 057 700
HYS 057/077 058/082 056 800
P28 061/079 059/082 060 610

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

...A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...

VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY SIGNAL A STRONG RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DIFFICULTIES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER.  AS LONG AS THE CLOUD REMAINS...HEATING BY THE SUN WILL
BE REDUCED WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND INHIBIT THE
SEVERITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
DIGHTON...GARDEN CITY...ULYSSES...ELKHART LINE WILL WANT TO HAVE A
FEW STORM SPOTTERES AVAILABLE.  ESPECIALLY IF THE AFTERNOON BRINGS
A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

...A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...

VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY SIGNAL A STRONG RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DIFFICULTIES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER.  AS LONG AS THE CLOUD REMAINS...HEATING BY THE SUN WILL
BE REDUCED WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND INHIBIT THE
SEVERITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
DIGHTON...GARDEN CITY...ULYSSES...ELKHART LINE WILL WANT TO HAVE A
FEW STORM SPOTTERES AVAILABLE.  ESPECIALLY IF THE AFTERNOON BRINGS
A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON