Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. ALL OF THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE SLOW WITH THE VORT
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO...ETA SEEMS TO BE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.
GIVEN THAT THE FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH LBF AND THAT CONVECTION HAS
A TENDENCY TO PUSH FRONTS FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANY MODEL FORECAST
INDICATES...WILL BUY OFF ON ETA FRONTAL POSITION SOLUTION. UPSHOT IS THAT I
WILL WORD A WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND KEEP HIGHER POPS
GOING FOR THE DAY PERIOD. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WARRANTS MENTION OF HIGHER POPS TODAY. ALSO...AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WE MAY SEE STORMS GO AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR TONIGHT...AS UPPER FORCING MOVES TO OUR EAST...WILL GRADUALLY
BRING POPS BACK DOWN SINCE MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH...NE WINDS LOOK
REASONABLE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT
A CAT LOWER THAN TODAYS FORECASTED READINGS. WILL DROP THE 20 POP
MENTIONED FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE SINCE NO WIDESPREAD FORCING
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 079/055 076/054 085 640
GCK 080/054 075/051 086 640
EHA 080/051 077/053 088 430
LBL 080/056 077/053 086 640
HYS 073/052 071/051 078 630
P28 079/059 077/057 085 460

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

...A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...

VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY SIGNAL A STRONG RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DIFFICULTIES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER.  AS LONG AS THE CLOUD REMAINS...HEATING BY THE SUN WILL
BE REDUCED WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND INHIBIT THE
SEVERITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
DIGHTON...GARDEN CITY...ULYSSES...ELKHART LINE WILL WANT TO HAVE A
FEW STORM SPOTTERES AVAILABLE.  ESPECIALLY IF THE AFTERNOON BRINGS
A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

...A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...

VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY SIGNAL A STRONG RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...DIFFICULTIES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER.  AS LONG AS THE CLOUD REMAINS...HEATING BY THE SUN WILL
BE REDUCED WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND INHIBIT THE
SEVERITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
DIGHTON...GARDEN CITY...ULYSSES...ELKHART LINE WILL WANT TO HAVE A
FEW STORM SPOTTERES AVAILABLE.  ESPECIALLY IF THE AFTERNOON BRINGS
A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO THE AREA.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON