Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 1999

SFC OBS SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS CWA WITH CLOUDS
THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BE DETECTED ON 88D IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
OK/KS BOARDER AT THIS TIME. 12Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWING PRECIP WATER AT
1.60. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POPS AND POT
FOR HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.

ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ETA/AVN SEEM TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER HANDLE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850/700 MB FEATURES. AS A
RESULT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POOL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA THIS EVENING. S/W WHICH WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM W/V LOOP WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS EARLY TONIGHT. BEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS TONIGHT WITH BEST 850 MB
TADV AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRESENT HERE AS WELL...CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN FROM A SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH WILL DEVELOP.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND PLUS 12Z DDC PRECIP WATER...FFG AND LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL WILL GO WITH FFA FOR OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. POPS WILL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH CAT POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST AND TAPER OFF TO 30 IN THE SE WHERE WEAKER FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT.

WEAK NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES
MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
THIS...HOWEVER DIFFER ON TIMING. SFC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES WITH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA. AS A RESULT SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AGAIN EARLY WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA SO AS NEXT
S/W APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY MAY HAVE SOME LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA/TS...MAINLY OVER THE NW. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC OF PCPN GOING
IN MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS ALL THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

SHOULD HAVE A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY
SO TEMPS SHOULD BE SOME WHAT WARMER. SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH HINTS OF LEE TROF BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP. 850 TEMPS
INDICATING SOME COOLER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE IN PARTS OF CWA
DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WAS SLIGHTLY LESS...EXCEPT IN THE WEST NEAR
LEE TROF. WILL THEREFORE MENTION SLIGHT CHC HERE TUESDAY BUT LEAVE
REMAINDER OF CWA PCPN FREE AT THIS TIME.

FWC AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR MON AND TUES SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR. WILL GO A LITTLE WARMER FOR TONIGHTS
LOW GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  UPPER SHORT WAVES SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CWA EVERY 24-36 HOURS.  CHANCES FOR PRECIP
NEARLY EVERY DAY...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AND LESS
UPSLOPE AS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIODS PROGRESSES.  THUS...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THEN AND BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO VARY QUITE A BIT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO WEST ACROSS CWA.  LOW TEMPS RANGE SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY
AS WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COORD...GLD...ICT...PUB

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST

DDC 066/083 064/088 065 623
GCK 065/083 064/087 065 843
EHA 067/085 064/089 062 733
LBL 067/083 064/088 063 623
HYS 065/082 062/087 064 643
P28 070/090 068/090 067 323

.DDC...FFA TONIGHT KSZ030-031-043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085-.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUGOTON TO GARDEN
CITY TO LA CROSSE.

RB/BURKE