Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPS.

01/00Z UPPER AIR MAPS DEPICTED BOTH A 500 AND 700 S/W OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO. THESE HAVE NOW PROPAGATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND ARE
HELPING TO SPAWN THE ONGOING CONVECTION. MODELS MOVE THIS S/W EAST
OF THE AREA BY 09Z. A SECOND 500 MB S/W AT 00Z WAS OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING. MODELS MOVE THIS S/W EAST OF THE AREA BY 15Z. SO...THE AREA
MAY NOT BE TSRA-FREE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING. THEN THE PROBLEM
LOOKS TO BE LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AND
HELP CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE 500 MB UPPER AIR PATTERN DOES A BIT OF A SEW-SAW PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WE WILL TRANSFER FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS 5H HIGH PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
NO SIGNIFICANT 5H S/W IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF FRIDAY. ALSO WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FLOW
PATTERN...THE JET WILL LIFT NORTH...HELPING TO REDUCE THE RISK
OF SVR WX VIA A LESS FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE. CLOSER TO EARTH...MODELS
SHOW GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 AND 700...THUS HELPING BRING WARMER
AIR AND MORE CAP TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY WHEN 500 WINDS
WILL ALSO BE BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPS.

SO EXCEPT FOR THIS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CHANCE OF STORMS
HAS SLIM CHANCES THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE CAP WILL BECOME TOO
STRONG TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE THAN SOME FLAT CU DURING THE
DAYTIME.

FOR TEMPS...WILL UNDERCUT FWC HIGHS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
GIVEN CLOUD DISCUSSION ABOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE. FOR FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WAA AND A
BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY.
THE ETA AND NGM SOLUTION PLACES 30 TO 35 DEG C 850 TEMPS OVER US
WHILE THE NGM IS A BIT COOLER AT 25 TO 30 DEG C. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF
THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN VERY WET RECENTLY...
WILL PREFER THE COOLER NGM SOLUTION THERE. THE CENTRAL...AND
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER...AND THUS A WARMER
SOLUTION IS MORE FAVORABLE THERE.

NOT SPENDING A LOT OF TIME ON THE EXTENDED THIS MORNING. WILL ONLY
REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA VIA THE CAP REASONING.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 081/066 092/067 094 800
GCK 083/064 090/065 092 700
EHA 086/062 097/063 099 500
LBL 085/063 095/064 097 500
HYS 077/066 089/067 092 610
P28 083/071 092/071 094 6-0

.DDC...NONE.

SLEIGHTER