Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999

FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE CHC FOR TSTMS AND TEMPS.

RUNNING A BIT LATE DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX.  RECURRING TSTMS OVER THE
NRN PTNS OF THE CWA TODAY IN AREA OF UNDER AREA OF STG UPPER LVL
DIFFLUENCE.  WK RIPPLES IN NW FLOW ALOFT HELPING SET OFF THE
CONVECTION ERLYR THS MRNG.  ANOTHER WK S/W ANLYZD OVR WYO THIS MRNG
APPRS TO BE HELPING FIRE NEXT ROUND OF STRMS OVR ERN COLO/NWRN KS
TAFTN.  LOW LVL EAST WEST BNDRY ALSO HELPING TO FOCUS THE STORMS
ACRSS THE CNTRL PTN OF THE CWA.

MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YDA IN KEEPING WNW/ESE ORIENTED
UPPR LVL JET FRM PAC NW INTO THE CENT PLAINS INTO THU AND THEN FCST
UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND THE CORE OF THE MAX WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME.  THIS FCST WILL BE BASED
SOMEWHAT ON PERSISTANCE FROM PREV PACKAGE.  AS H5 S/W ROLLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS TNGT. WE SHOULD SEE SFC LOW GET SHUNTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN WITH SFC FLOW BECMG NERLY AGAIN TNGT.  THIS AND
MOIST GROUND FROM WHERE THE RAINS FALL SHOULD HELP REGENERATE
SOME MORE LOW CLDNSS AND FOG TNGT.  WILL ADD FOG TO NRN 2/3DS OF THE
CWA TNGT.  ON THU WILL KEEP A MENTION OF MRNG TSTMS IN ALL BUT SRN
PTNS OF CWA AGAIN AS ANOTHER IN SERIES OF WK RIPPLES ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH.

WILL CONT TREND OF WARMING THINGS UP A BIT ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LVL JET.

NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO
THE FMR/S IDEA OF WARMING TEMPS UP TO AOA 100 THIS WEEKEND. WITH MOST
OF THE CWA RECEIVING PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THINK IT WILL
BE HARD TO HEAT THINGS UP TOO MUCH.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SWRN
PTNS OF THE CWA WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING INTO THE 90S MORE FREQUENTLY OF LATE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONxE FORECAST.

DDC 065/084 065/091 068 423
GCK 063/083 064/092 066 423
EHA 064/090 066/097 067 212
LBL 065/085 065/095 067 212
HYS 062/083 064/088 066 423
P28 068/086 070/095 073 323

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD