Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHT SEVERE
POSSIBILITY.

19Z SFC CHART SHOWS PLUME OF 70+ DEW POINTS EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS REST OF
WESTERN 2/3RD OF CWA.  DRY LINE IS FROM NEAR GOODLAND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST WEST OF ELKHART...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THINK THERE IS
SUCH A STRONG CAP ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTED BY A 5.1 DEG CAP OFF DDC
18Z SOUNDING...THAT STORM POTENTIAL ALONG DRY LINE IS VERY LIMITED
THIS EVENING.  BUT AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN UTAH APPROACHES
EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA.
THEREFORE..WILL GO WITH 30 POPS W AND N AND MENTION SLGT CHC FOR SVR
THERE.  ONLY 20 POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH NO MENTION OF SEVERE AT
THIS TIME.  TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WAA
AND HIGH HUMIDITY...BUT WILL PLAY FOR AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT/S
LOWS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
WILL SHIFT HIGHER POPS /40 PERCENT/ EASTWARD IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TONGUE AND THEN DECREASE POPS TO 20 POPS MOST AREAS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY AS SOME OF HIGH HUMIDITY TO GET
PUSHED SOUTHWARD WITH COLD (COOL) FRONTAL PASSAGE.   WIND DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE TOO WINDY EITHER FOR SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGS
COOLER THAN SAT.

MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED ETA BEST OVERALL...BUT NO CLEAR FAVORITE
MODEL.  AVN IS SLOWEST WITH PRECIP ONSET...AND NGM IS HIGHEST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MAIN QUESTION THIS FOR THIS CYCLE IS WHETHER FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS.  IF FRONT CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD PUSH...THEN PCPN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE FOR MIDWEEK.  WITH A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING TO PLAGUE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...I WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN AND LET LATER SHIFTS EXAMINE THE
SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST

DDC 068/088 068/086 066 212
GCK 066/086 064/088 062 32-
EHA 066/087 063/089 062 32-
LBL 067/087 064/089 062 32-
HYS 070/087 066/085 064 332
P28 074/089 072/088 088 242

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/MCCAMMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0755 PM    ROLLA                     KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   MORTON

0802 PM    15 SE JOHNSON             KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/04/99   STANTON                        LARGE TREES BENDING OVER.

0803 PM    4 WSW ULYSSES             KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   GRANT

0807 PM    12 SW LAKIN               KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   KEARNY

0810 PM    2 S ULYSSES               KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   GRANT

0840 PM    HUGOTON                   KS   80 MPH TSTM GUST
06/04/99   STEVENS                        POWER LINES DOWN.  TRAILERS
                                          BLOWN OFF FOUNDATIONS.
                                          ROOFS OFF HOUSES. SPEED
                                          ESTIMATED.

0840 PM    13 WSW GARDEN CITY        KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/04/99   FINNEY

0905 PM    15 ENE ULYSSES            KS   65 MPH TSTM GUST
06/04/99   GRANT

0915 PM    4 W SATANTA               KS   WIND DAMAGE
06/04/99   HASKELL                        POWER LINES DOWNED.  STORAGE
                                          SHED MOVED OFF FOUNDATION
                                          AT GOLF COURSE.

0925 PM    16 NNE LIBERAL            KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   SEWARD                       &

1010 PM    10 N LIBERAL              KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   SEWARD

1014 PM    2 SW RICHFIELD            KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/04/99   MORTON

BURKE