Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SLIGHT SEVERE
POSSIBILITY.

19Z SFC CHART SHOWS PLUME OF 70+ DEW POINTS EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS REST OF
WESTERN 2/3RD OF CWA.  DRY LINE IS FROM NEAR GOODLAND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST WEST OF ELKHART...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THINK THERE IS
SUCH A STRONG CAP ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTED BY A 5.1 DEG CAP OFF DDC
18Z SOUNDING...THAT STORM POTENTIAL ALONG DRY LINE IS VERY LIMITED
THIS EVENING.  BUT AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN UTAH APPROACHES
EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING...A SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA.
THEREFORE..WILL GO WITH 30 POPS W AND N AND MENTION SLGT CHC FOR SVR
THERE.  ONLY 20 POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH NO MENTION OF SEVERE AT
THIS TIME.  TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WAA
AND HIGH HUMIDITY...BUT WILL PLAY FOR AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT/S
LOWS.

SATURDAY WILL SEE WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
WILL SHIFT HIGHER POPS /40 PERCENT/ EASTWARD IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TONGUE AND THEN DECREASE POPS TO 20 POPS MOST AREAS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY AS SOME OF HIGH HUMIDITY TO GET
PUSHED SOUTHWARD WITH COLD (COOL) FRONTAL PASSAGE.   WIND DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE TOO WINDY EITHER FOR SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGS
COOLER THAN SAT.

MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED ETA BEST OVERALL...BUT NO CLEAR FAVORITE
MODEL.  AVN IS SLOWEST WITH PRECIP ONSET...AND NGM IS HIGHEST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MAIN QUESTION THIS FOR THIS CYCLE IS WHETHER FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS.  IF FRONT CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD PUSH...THEN PCPN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLE FOR MIDWEEK.  WITH A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING TO PLAGUE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...I WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN AND LET LATER SHIFTS EXAMINE THE
SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST

DDC 068/088 068/086 066 212
GCK 066/086 064/088 062 32-
EHA 066/087 063/089 062 32-
LBL 067/087 064/089 062 32-
HYS 070/087 066/085 064 332
P28 074/089 072/088 088 242

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/MCCAMMON