Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 PM PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999

FOLLOWING FLOYD CLOSELY THIS AFTN. SYSTEM IN THE FIRST STAGES OF
BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL. A COASTAL FRONT HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTH
JERSEY SW THRU THE DELEWARE VALLEY...THEN N/S ACROSS THE CHEASEPEAKE.
THIS APPRS TO BE ENHANCING THE WIND SPEEDS OVR LANCASTER COUNTY AND
IS PROBABLY AIDING IN THE HEAVY RAIN TOTALS EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA.
RADAR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A S/W EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO SCEN PA. THIS SHOULD SHUT THE R+ DOWN TO R-/R UNTIL
FLOYD PASSES. IFLOWS INDICATES CREEKS AND SMALL RIVERS AROUND
LANCASTER COUNTY ARE JUST BEGINNING TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. WITH
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF R+ B4 SETTLING BACK TO R-/R IT...APPRS FLOODING
WILL GET WORSE B4 IT GETS BETTER.

SIMILAR TO BOB BACK IN 91...WINDS ARE STRONGEST EAST OF THE CENTER
AND IN THE SW QUAD. IN THE NORTH AND NW SIDE OF THE STORM...WIND
SPEEDS ARE RUNNING 15 TO 25KTS. ALTHO LANCASTER ASOS IS GUSTING TO
34 KTS. HOW FAR INLAND THE DAMAGING WIND GETS AS THE CENTER PASSES
ATLANTIC CITY IS A GOOD QUESTION. IT WILL TAKE MUCH LESS WIND THAN
USUAL TO BRING SHALLOW ROOTED TREES DOWN...THE 4+ INCHES OF RAIN
HAVING SOFTENED THE GROUND MAKING LOCUST TREES AND SWAMP MAPLES
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. ONE THING IN OUR FAVOR IS THE DROUGHT DRIED
QUITE A FEW LEAVES OFF THE TREES...SO THERE ARE NOT AS MANY LEAVES
TO ACT AS SAILS.  WE DO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
TO TOPPLE TREES IN OUR CWA UNTIL THE CENTER OF FLOYD GETS TO OUR
LATITUDE. THAT SHOULD BE SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. NHC HAS
FLOYD AS A 60KT T.S. JUST E OF TOMS RIVER NJ AT 00Z. FWCMDT IS
INTERESTING AT 00Z WITH NW WIND AT 43KTS. IF WE SEE INDICATIONS OF
THIS UPSTREAM...WE WILL UPGRADE THE SE COUNTIES TO A HWW.

ONCE FLOYD PASSES THIS EVE...THE RAIN WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY. THE
WIND WILL PROB BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE
...MAY REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT PLACES LIKE MDT AND LNS.

FRI SHUD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUN AND A FEW SC OVR THE
MTNS. TEMPS IN THE 70S E OF THE MTNS AND IN THE 60S ON THE HI GRND.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S EVEN IN THE LWR SUSQ.

HAVENT HAD A CHC TO LOOK MUCH FURTHER THAN THAT AND WILL ACCEPT
WHAT IS OUT.

IN THE EXTENDED...WILL PUT A CHC SHRS IN TUE BASED ON MRF.

.CTP...FFA FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THRU THIS EVE.
       WIND ADVISORY FOR LWR SUSQ AND CUMB VALS THRU THIS EVE.

HEAD