Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999

IN CONTRAST TO LAST NIGHT THE ETA AND NGM ARE NOW IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF FLOYD. THE NGM IS A BIT FASTER AND
FARTHER WEST THAN THE ETA...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL PA. WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA THAT FLOYD MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING THEN NE JUST
OFFSHORE TOWARD LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LOTS OF ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST. FIRST IS THE RAIN AMOUNTS. WITH A
TRACK JUST OFFSHORE HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING FLOODING RAINS BACK HERE
IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. MODEL FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. ONE CONCERN IS HEAVY
RAIN THAT HAS BEEN FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING PRETTY FAR WEST IN
VA...WHICH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE WITH. STILL...DONT EXPECT
THE OVER 3 INCH RAINS IN THE AOO-UNV AREA WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR
FLOODING AND WILL DROP THE WATCH IN THAT AREA. FARTHER EAST WILL
KEEP THE WATCH AS EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ANYWHERE FROM THE
SUSQ RIVER ON EAST. ETA/NGM/MM5 IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN MY
CWA AND PITS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT IDEA SO WILL MAKE NO BIG
ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE WEST.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE STORM PASSING OFF
TO THE WEST ALL OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THIS STORM
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON WIND SPEEDS. DONT EXPECT 40 MPH + SUSTAINED
WINDS ANYWHERE UNLESS THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS MUCH FARTHER WEST
THAN EXPECTED. WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE EAST. HERE IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY AREA
EXPECT SPEEDS OF MORE LIKE 15 TO 20 MPH...20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SPEAKING OF BEING IN THE COLD SECTOR...WILL GO
WELL BELOW MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AS
FLOYD MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH THE
MOST SUNSHINE SE OF THE MTNS AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

.CTP...FFA FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TODAY.
       WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA TODAY.

MSE