Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
930 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999

DECENT RAIN TOTALS THIS AM IN THE CITY OF BFD...NEARLY 4 INCHES FM
STORM SPOTTERS AND ON THE 88D ESTIMATES BOTH. SHOWERY RAFL W/VERY
LTL THUNDER (BUT STILL LOOKING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE) STRETCHES FM
FINGER LAKES ALL THE WAY TO LWR SUSQ. BEST RAFL THERE IS S OF IPT.
ALL THIS RA LOOKS TO BE MOVG VERY SLOLY TO THE N AND E. SOME DVLPMNT
NOW BACK INTO CENTRAL PA VERY CLOSE TO UNV...AND RIGHT ARND MDT.

MDLS SO DIVERGANT EVEN THE FIRST PDS ARE WIDELY DIFF. YSTDY/S ETA
DID HAVE THE AREA OF PCPN VERY CORRECT YSTDY. THIS IN CONTRAST TO
THINKING YSTDY.  SO...TAKING A LOOK AT M-ETA FOR NEXT FEW HRS...IT
HAS SOMEWHAT OF A HANDLE ON CURR TRENDS...AS IT MOVES THAT PCPN VERY
LTL...BUT DEVELOPS PCPN OV FAR SC PA NR HGR. AS THE M-ETA IS TIED
CLOSELY TO THE ETA...IT ZIPS THE SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
COAST MUCH FASTER...AND PUTS US BACK INTO THE MAINLY DRY ZONE BY
ERLY SAT MORN.

WL TAKE OUT TIMING OF PRECIP FOR MOST PART...AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE
AREAS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. TEMPS TO BE LEFT AS IS.

.CTP...NONE.

DANGELO