Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 1999

...SUMMER MONSOON ENDS...

BOTH THE NGM AND THE AVIATION MDLS ADVECT A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
FROM THE DESERT SW ACRS THE CNTRL RCKYS ON WED NGT AND THU BRINGING
AN END TO THE CURRENT MONSOONAL REGIME.  HWVR...MONSOONAL MSTR WILL
AID IN GUD TSTM DVLPMNT TNGT ACRS THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE LCLY HVY
RAIN DUE TO HI PRECIPITIBLE WATER IN SPITE OF GUD WNDS ALF.  AS THE
SFC TROF MOVES EAST OF THE LEE OF THE MTNS ON WED DWNSLOPE FLO WILL
REDUCE THE THREAT OF TSTMS OVER THE NERN PLAINS....BUT SUM RESIDUAL
MONSOONAL MSTR WILL RMN OVER THE MTNS.  THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH
THE UPR TROF PASSAGE ON WED NGT WILL RMN WELL N OF AREA.  DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE OVR THE AREA ON WED NGT AND THU BHND THE PAC CDFNT. TEMPS
WILL RMN WARM OVR THE PLAINS ON WED WITH ONLY SUM MINOR COOLING ALF
ON THU.  WILL MAKE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMNTS TO MOS TEMP GUIDANCE ATTM.

IN XTNDD PRD...NEW MRF RE-BUILDS UPR RDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS BUT RDG IS
FLATTEND BY A COUPLE OF SHT WVS MOVG ACRS NRN RCKYS ON FRI AND SAT.
THIS WILL BRING MORE WLY FLOW ACRS AREA AND KEEP TROPICAL STREAM OF
MONSOONAL MSTR CUTOFF.  MRF SHWS NO PCPN OVR AREA AND WILL BUY INTO
THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW...EVEN THO ORIENTATION OF UPR RDG LATE IN PRD
CUD ALLOW SUM MONSOONAL MSTR TO BECOM ENTRAINED IN CIRCULATION ALF.
DUE TO DRYING OF AMS OVR AREA WILL UP MAX TEMPS INTO LO TO MID 90S.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.