Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
345 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 1999

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND WILL BE FOR
TIMING...ESPECIALLY SPEEDING UP THE DRYING BEHIND THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE LATE WED.

ETA HAS THE BEST GRASP OF DETAILS...WITH ONE AREA OF LIFT MOVING
NORTH OUT OF CO THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING OVER THE PLAINS.  A
BETTER ORGANIZED WAVE NOW OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
WRN CO...THEN WILL BE PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF THE STRONGER TROUGH NOW
ON THE COAST.  THE AZ/NM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.  THIS MEANS THAT OUR PERIODS OF
UPWARD FORCING AND BEST MOISTURE WILL NOT MATCH THE DIURNAL
HEATING.  THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME PLAINS STORMS AT THE END OF THE DAY.  THE
STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK AGAIN EXCEPT NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER WHERE THERE IS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES.

WED IS NOT LOOKING AS STORMY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  ALL THE MODELS
HINT AT THE WINDS GOING WEST BEHIND THE WEAKER TROUGH DURING THE
DAY.  THIS LEAVES THE REMNANTS OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING OVER
DRIER AIR.  THE ETA KEEPS A LITTLE MOISTURE BEHIND THE STRONGER
TROUGH LATE WED/EARLY THU WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...BUT THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING WEST WINDS.  FRI AND THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO HAVE DRY SW WINDS ALOFT AND LIKELY MORE WARMING
ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE.  THE JET WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO OUR SOUTH FOR A MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.      GIMMESTAD

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-110600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY AS
MORE HEATING WILL OCCUR.  THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 1 PM AND OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
AFTER 3 PM.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING.
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE AROUND 15-20 MPH SO THE THREAT OF
VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN ANY ONE SPOT SHOULD BE LIMITED. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN A FEW
AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

RPK

COZ030-032>050-110600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY AS
MORE HEATING WILL OCCUR.  THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 1 PM AND OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
AFTER 3 PM.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING.
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE AROUND 15-20 MPH SO THE THREAT OF
VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN ANY ONE SPOT SHOULD BE LIMITED. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN A FEW
AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

RPK