Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 1999

ISOLD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALREADY THIS AFTN ALONG FNTL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN TX PNHDL. 18Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG
WITH LAPSE RATES 6.5C. LARGE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER REMAINDER OF
TX PNHDL WITH WEAK W/NWRLY SFC FLOW S OF FNT. LATEST LAPS DATA
SUGGEST BEST CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED FM NE TX PNHDL BACK INTO ERN NM
AS FLOW BACKED AT TCC. 12Z MODELS INDICATED NOSE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ADVECTING N ACRS HOBBS TO CVS. THIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E THIS
EVE. UPPER JET STREAK ALSO MOVING ACRS PNHDLS THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT...ESP NRN ZNS. EXPECT LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX PNHDL THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SE ALONG
MOIST AXIS AND AHEAD OF INCREASING H8 FLOW INTO SE TX PNHDL. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH EXPECTED SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED FFA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ZNS
WHICH HAVE RECIEVED MOST RAINFALL LAST FEW DAYS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS FFG VALUES STILL RUNNING NR 2 INCHES.

CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO MV S OVERNIGHT WITH DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO NRN ZNS. GRANADA PROFILER ALREADY SHOWING ERLY FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY UP TO H7 SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
STIFF PUSH S. THIS SHOULD BE ENUF TO SHUT OFF PRECIP ACROSS AT
LEAST NRN ZNS WED PROVIDING COOL AND CLOUDY DAY MOST AREAS. UPPER
LOW FCST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE E THROUGH THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS
THROUGH THEN AS COLD POOL MOVES OVHD AND LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO REINFORCE INSTABILITY.

IN EXTENDED...REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY ROTATE NE WITH TIME AS
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG INTO SW U.S. EXPECT RELATIVE BREAK IN
PRECIP SAT BEFORE MORE ENERGY IN SW FLOW APPROACHES LATE SUN.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

COBB