Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 5, 1998, 3:53 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 62 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 5, 1998, 3:53 PM MST (22:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 5, 1998, 4:55 PM MST
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pinal County, AZ
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 4:00 PM MST | Thunderstorm Wind 56 | Oracle, AZ |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPHX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 454 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1195 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 167 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
613 WUUS1 KTUS 052254 RRA SVRTUS AZC021-052355- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 353 PM MST SAT SEP 5 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING ORACLE JUNCTION...ORACLE AND MAMMOTH. * UNTIL 455 PM MST * AT 351 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... ORACLE BY 400 PM MAMMOTH BY 405 PM MEYER
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 5, 2:50 PM MST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 2:50 PM MST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 250 PM MST SAT SEP 5 1998 SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE GRAND CANYON STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER GENERALLY THE SAME AREA WHERE STEADY RAIN FELL EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATER AND CAPE VALUES SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING MAINLY IN CENTRAL/EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO MORNINGS WERE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SANTA CRUZ VALLEY FROM NOGALES TO TUCSON. BUT THIS IS SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO WATCH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TUS 3111. DAVIS. .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 5, 10:50 AM MST, 5 hours 3 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1050 AM MST SAT SEP 5 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GRAHAM 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GREENLEE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TOHONO OODHAM 30 40 60 0 NW 15
WESTERN PIMA 30 40 60 0 NW 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL FOCUS STRONGER STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TODAY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERT
VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT
ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS
(DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL) RAIN GRTR THAN
-THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAIN
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN ANY LOCATION STORM
MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/JTDSpecial weather statement, Sep 5, 10:50 AM MST, 5 hours 3 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1050 AM MST SAT SEP 5 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GRAHAM 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GREENLEE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TOHONO OODHAM 30 40 60 0 NW 15
WESTERN PIMA 30 40 60 0 NW 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL FOCUS STRONGER STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TODAY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERT
VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT
ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS
(DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL) RAIN GRTR THAN
-THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAIN
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN ANY LOCATION STORM
MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/JTDThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2:17 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 48 min |
| Sep 5, 3:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 62 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.