Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 5, 1998, 2:17 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 5, 1998, 2:17 PM MST (21:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 5, 1998, 3:05 PM MST
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 191 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -210 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1289 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 162 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
140 WUUS1 KTUS 052119 RRA SVRTUS AZC019-052205- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 217 PM MST SAT SEP 5 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AVRA VALLEY AND RYAN FIELD * UNTIL 305 PM MST * AT 217 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR RYAN FIELD MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AVRA VALLEY BY 230 PM MST JD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 5, 9:20 AM MST, 4 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 9:20 AM MST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 920 AM MST SAT SEP 5 1998 SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE GRAND CANYON STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EXTENDED RIGHT UP THE SANTA CRUZ VALLEY FROM NOGALES TO TUCSON. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THERE WAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATEST ETA MODEL PICKED UP ON A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AT 12Z WITH DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY VALUES OVER AN AREA FROM NOGALES NORTH TO TUCSON AND GLOBE. THIS FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE THE BAND OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING. ETA MODEL LIFTS THIS FEATURE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE PROGGED IN THE WAKE OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS CURRENTLY AROUND TUCSON AND IN SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS CLEARING SHOULD BE EARLY ENOUGH FOR THESE AREAS TO RECEIVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TODAY TO SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WEAK IMPULSE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOWER LEVELS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED AS MUCH DRYING AS THE MID LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY WITH A FEW MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS. UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW PWATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TUS 331. DAVIS. .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 5, 10:50 AM MST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1050 AM MST SAT SEP 5 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GRAHAM 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GREENLEE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TOHONO OODHAM 30 40 60 0 NW 15
WESTERN PIMA 30 40 60 0 NW 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL FOCUS STRONGER STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TODAY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERT
VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT
ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS
(DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL) RAIN GRTR THAN
-THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAIN
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN ANY LOCATION STORM
MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/JTDSpecial weather statement, Sep 5, 10:50 AM MST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1050 AM MST SAT SEP 5 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GRAHAM 30 20 40 0 NW 15
GREENLEE 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 30 20 40 0 NW 15
TOHONO OODHAM 30 40 60 0 NW 15
WESTERN PIMA 30 40 60 0 NW 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 40 0 NW 15
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. A COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL FOCUS STRONGER STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TODAY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FEW MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERT
VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
*****************************************************************
KEY...AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT
ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LEVELS
(DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL) RAIN GRTR THAN
-THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAIN
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN ANY LOCATION STORM
MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/JTDThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 3:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 62 min |
| Sep 5, 3:53 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 62 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.