Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 1998, 4:25 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 65 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 28, 1998, 4:25 PM MST (23:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 28, 1998, 5:30 PM MST
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pinal County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 5:25 PM MST | Thunderstorm Wind 55 | Coolidge, AZ | Winds took down 7 power poles, numerous tree limbs snapped off. |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3386 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
357 WUUS1 KTUS 282327 RRA SVRTUS AZC021-290025- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 425 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING MAMMOTH...ORACLE AND SAN MANUEL * UNTIL 530 PM MST * AT 423 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN MANUEL MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... MAMMOTH BY 432 PM SAN MANUEL BY 438 PM MEYER
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998 SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON SUNDAY FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXPECTED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND A LITTLE COOL ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED STORMS WEST TO SCATTERED EAST THIS EVENING THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. IF YOU WENT STRICTLY BY THE MODELS(A FOOLISH THING THIS TIME OF YEAR) YOU WOULD GO WITH A BIG DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODELS GRAB DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST AND BRING IT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR HARDLY ANY OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THATS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL ADD MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND I AM NOT SURE IF THE DRY AIR THE MODELS WANT TO PUSH IN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY OR NEARLY SQUASH ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND THINK THE PRUDENT COURSE WILL BE TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST AND LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST SATURDAY THEN SCALE IT BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING WEST ON SUNDAY AND ISOLATED EAST. A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY(JUST A FEW DEGREES) DUE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS AS UPPER HIGHS MOVES FURTHER AWAY THEN ABOUT THE SAME SUNDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS DECREASE A LITTLE MORE. TUS 3221. COLLINS .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 30 20 10 W 15
GRAHAM 30 30 20 10 W 15
GREENLEE 30 20 20 10 W 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 20 10 0 W 15
TOHONO OODHAM 10 20 10 0 W 15
WESTERN PIMA 5 20 5 0 W 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 20 5 0 W 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 30 20 10 W 15
SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT SO
EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE WEST AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN THE EAST.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/CECSpecial weather statement, Aug 28, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 30 20 10 W 15
GRAHAM 30 30 20 10 W 15
GREENLEE 30 20 20 10 W 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 20 10 0 W 15
TOHONO OODHAM 10 20 10 0 W 15
WESTERN PIMA 5 20 5 0 W 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 20 5 0 W 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 30 20 10 W 15
SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT SO
EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE WEST AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN THE EAST.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/CECThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2:11 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Greenlee | 29 min |
| Aug 28, 3:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 64 min |
| Aug 28, 3:23 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Graham | 62 min |
| Aug 28, 4:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise, Pima | 63 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.