Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 1998, 2:11 PM MST for Greenlee County, Arizona. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 28, 1998, 2:11 PM MST (21:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 28, 1998, 2:40 PM MST
- In force
- 29 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Greenlee County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 196 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2887 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 38 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
534 WUUS1 KTUS 282112 RRA SVRTUS AZC011-282140- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 211 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF CLIFTON AND MORENCI * UNTIL 240 PM MST * AT 207 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF CLIFTON AND MORENCI MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CLIFTON BY 220 PM MST MORENCI BY 225 PM MST CEC
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 9:35 AM MST, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 9:35 AM MST, 4 hours 36 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 935 AM MST FRI AUG 28 1998 SYNOPSIS...WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OR ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...TUCSON SOUNDING THIS MORNING AGAIN REVEALED A GOOD CAP IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WAS NOT TOO SUPRISING SINCE THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH IN EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. SOUNDING ALSO REVEALED A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITH NO ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN SIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY WHICH WAS RATHER MEAGER(EXCEPT NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER IN SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES DUE TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX JUST ACROSS THE BORDER). THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA/EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHICH SETS UP A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THIS ALSO BRINGS IN A LITTLE COOLER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS (1-2 C) WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT IS COUNTERACTED BY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE SATELLITE SOUNDER. THINK THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE THAN OFFSET THE MID-LEVEL COOLING SO THINK SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MEAGER DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NEW MODEL RUN SHOWING THIS PATTERN PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. SOME STATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SEE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES ALREADY UP 2-3 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. TUS 223. COLLINS .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 30 20 10 W 15
GRAHAM 30 30 20 10 W 15
GREENLEE 30 20 20 10 W 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 20 10 0 W 15
TOHONO OODHAM 10 20 10 0 W 15
WESTERN PIMA 5 20 5 0 W 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 20 5 0 W 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 30 20 10 W 15
SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT SO
EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE WEST AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN THE EAST.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/CECSpecial weather statement, Aug 28, 12:45 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI AUG 28 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 30 20 10 W 15
GRAHAM 30 30 20 10 W 15
GREENLEE 30 20 20 10 W 15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 20 10 0 W 15
TOHONO OODHAM 10 20 10 0 W 15
WESTERN PIMA 5 20 5 0 W 15
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 20 5 0 W 15
SANTA CRUZ 30 30 20 10 W 15
SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME EXTENT SO
EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE WEST AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN THE EAST.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/CECThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 3:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 64 min |
| Aug 28, 3:23 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Graham | 62 min |
| Aug 28, 4:25 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 65 min |
| Aug 28, 4:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise, Pima | 63 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.