Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 3, 1998, 3:46 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 3, 1998, 3:46 PM MST (22:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 3, 1998, 4:20 PM MST
- In force
- 34 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 304 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -240 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2288 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
444 WUUS1 KTUS 032248 RRA SVRTUS AZC003-032320- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 346 PM MST MON AUG 3 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 420 PM MST * AT 344 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF BENSON MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. CEC
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 3, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 3, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST MON AUG 3 1998 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DURING THE WEEK FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION TO IMPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. NORTHWEST TO NORTH STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO EXPECTED MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT OVER SONORA MEXICO THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 850 MB DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE THE MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY CREEPS SLOWLY WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE MCS DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE EUROPEAN MODELS BY THIS WEEKEND FOR A GOOD EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS GOOD. TUS 2222. OKULSKI .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 3, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 1 minute before
AZZ019-029>035-040700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON AUG 3 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 45 15 SW 6
GRAHAM 25 20 35 10 S 8
GREENLEE 20 20 30 5 S 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 20 35 5 SW 6
TOHONO OODHAM 10 20 25 5 SW 6
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 20 25 5 S 8
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 45 10 SW 6
SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS...MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL A CONCERN IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/ROSpecial weather statement, Aug 3, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 1 minute before
AZZ019-029>035-040700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST MON AUG 3 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 30 20 45 15 SW 6
GRAHAM 25 20 35 10 S 8
GREENLEE 20 20 30 5 S 8
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 20 20 35 5 SW 6
TOHONO OODHAM 10 20 25 5 SW 6
WESTERN PIMA 0 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST PINAL 10 20 25 5 S 8
SANTA CRUZ 30 20 45 10 SW 6
SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS...MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL A CONCERN IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/ROThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 6:05 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 30 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.