Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Tucson, AZ

August 2, 1998Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 2, 1998, 6:05 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 2, 1998, 6:05 PM MST (01:05 UTC)
Expired
Aug 2, 1998, 6:35 PM MST
In force
30 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Pinal County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-08-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 551 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-08-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
551 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2741 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

223 
WUUS1 KTUS 030106 RRA
SVRTUS
AZC021-030135-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
605 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 635 PM MST

* AT 602 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  9 MILES WEST OF ORACLE JUNCTION OVER HIGHWAY 79 AND PARK LINK
  DRIVE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.



CEC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 2, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS WILL RESULT IN
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE...WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN
RATHER MOIST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING ERODED NICELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME SUNSHINE. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS CLEARING WAS EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL
COCHISE AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST...SO WOULD EXPECT A FEW STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. PCPN WATER VALUES
REMAIN HIGH WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN US.
EXPECT SOME MORE DRYING ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THE AIR MASS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN EASTERN
ZONES AND TREND THE POPS DOWNWARD OUT WEST. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
INCREASE SOME DURING THE FCST PD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
RGN. SO WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. TUS 4232. DAVIS

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 2, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-030700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
               AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          40          20          70         50     W   6
GRAHAM           40          20          70         40     SW  10
GREENLEE         50          20          70         40     SW  10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  40          20          70         50     SW  8
TOHONO OODHAM   30          20          50         30     W   8
WESTERN PIMA     30          20          40         20     W   8
SOUTHEAST PINAL  30          20          60         40     SW  10
SANTA CRUZ       40          20          70         50     W   8

SYNOPSIS...CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO ERODE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/JD
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-030700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
               AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          40          20          70         50     W   6
GRAHAM           40          20          70         40     SW  10
GREENLEE         50          20          70         40     SW  10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  40          20          70         50     SW  8
TOHONO OODHAM   30          20          50         30     W   8
WESTERN PIMA     30          20          40         20     W   8
SOUTHEAST PINAL  30          20          60         40     SW  10
SANTA CRUZ       40          20          70         50     W   8

SYNOPSIS...CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO ERODE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/JD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 3, 3:46 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.