Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 2, 1998, 6:05 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 2, 1998, 6:05 PM MST (01:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 2, 1998, 6:35 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Pinal County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 551 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -12 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2741 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
223 WUUS1 KTUS 030106 RRA SVRTUS AZC021-030135- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 605 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 635 PM MST * AT 602 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF ORACLE JUNCTION OVER HIGHWAY 79 AND PARK LINK DRIVE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CEC
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 2, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS WILL RESULT IN LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE...WHILE THE EAST WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING ERODED NICELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME SUNSHINE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CLEARING WAS EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL COCHISE AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST...SO WOULD EXPECT A FEW STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. PCPN WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN US. EXPECT SOME MORE DRYING ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN EASTERN ZONES AND TREND THE POPS DOWNWARD OUT WEST. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS INCREASE SOME DURING THE FCST PD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE RGN. SO WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. TUS 4232. DAVIS .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-030700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 40 20 70 50 W 6
GRAHAM 40 20 70 40 SW 10
GREENLEE 50 20 70 40 SW 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 40 20 70 50 SW 8
TOHONO OODHAM 30 20 50 30 W 8
WESTERN PIMA 30 20 40 20 W 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 60 40 SW 10
SANTA CRUZ 40 20 70 50 W 8
SYNOPSIS...CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO ERODE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/JDSpecial weather statement, Aug 2, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-030700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SUN AUG 2 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 40 20 70 50 W 6
GRAHAM 40 20 70 40 SW 10
GREENLEE 50 20 70 40 SW 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 40 20 70 50 SW 8
TOHONO OODHAM 30 20 50 30 W 8
WESTERN PIMA 30 20 40 20 W 8
SOUTHEAST PINAL 30 20 60 40 SW 10
SANTA CRUZ 40 20 70 50 W 8
SYNOPSIS...CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO ERODE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/JDThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 3:46 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 34 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.