Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 1, 1998, 1:18 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 1998, 1:18 PM MST (20:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 1, 1998, 2:10 PM MST
- In force
- 52 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Santa Cruz County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 197 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -124 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1780 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 012019 SVRTUS AZC023-012110- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 118 PM MST SAT AUG 1 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 210 PM MST * AT 118 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PATAGONIA OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SONOITA MOVING NORTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SONOITA BY 142 PM MST JD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 1, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 48 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST SAT AUG 1 1998 SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA WHILE THE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN MOIST. SUBSEQUENTLY WESTERN PORTIONS WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE AREAS FROM SELLS EASTWARD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. DISCUSSION...BIG STORMS LAST NIGHT...QUESTION IS CAN IT DO IT AGAIN TODAY? POSITIVE FACTORS ARE ABUNDANT MSTR AND CLEARING SKIES. TUS SOUNDING NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN FRI. YUM VAD SHOWING SYNOPTIC WNDS PULLING IN MORE MSTR. NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE SOME COOLING OF LOW DESERTS BY STORMS LAST NIGHT AND A MORE SRLY H2 FLOW WHICH WOULD BLOW THE ANVILS NWD. BUT THIS DID NOT SEEM TO AFECT STORM MUCH LAST NIGHT. SO WET ALMOST DEMANDS FFW... FOR SUN QUITE DIFFERENT SITUATION BUT STILL QUITE EXPLOSIVE. IF ITS A NO GO TODAY THEN DESERT WILL BE WARM AND MOIST ENUF FOR SWD MOVG RIM STORMS. NOTE H7 WNDS SHIFT TO NRLY FLOW IN WAKE OFl TROF PASSING ACROSS NRN PTN OF STATE TODAY. TUS 443. HOLBROOK .TWC...NONE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 1, 12:45 PM MST, 33 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-020700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SAT AUG 1 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 70 15 70 40 N 10
GRAHAM 70 15 70 40 N 10
GREENLEE 60 10 60 30 N 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 70 20 70 50 N 10
TOHONO O'ODHAM 60 20 70 50 N 10
WESTERN PIMA 50 15 40 20 N 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 60 20 70 40 N 10
SANTA CRUZ 70 20 70 60 N 10
SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF NOGALES SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS WITH
STORMS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 5:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 47 min |
| Jul 31, 5:47 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise | 78 min |
| Aug 1, 3:53 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 47 min |
| Aug 1, 4:21 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 64 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.