Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 31, 1998, 5:47 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 78 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 31, 1998, 5:47 PM MST (00:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 31, 1998, 7:05 PM MST
- In force
- 78 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 426 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -65 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2222 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 010049 FFWTUS AZC003-010205- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 547 PM MST FRI JUL 31 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 705 PM MST * AT 545 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN ELFRIDA AND DOUGLAS...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST. OKULSKI
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 31, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 17 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST FRI JUL 31 1998 SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN PART OF ARIZONA WHILE THE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN MOIST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED IN THE EAST AND ISOLATED IN THE WEST. DISCUSSION...STORM COOLED AIR OVR AREA NOW AND NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE WAKE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD IN MOST AREAS. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AS COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED DOWN IN MEX. IF THIS DOES NOT MOVE IN SEEMS TO BE A LOW GRADE MONSOON WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY EAST AS MSTR AXIS REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. ON SUN AS TROF AXIS TO THE NORTH SWINGS BY MID LVL FLOW BECOMES NRLY...WITH MOIST DESERT THIS SHOULD KICK RIM STORMS SOUTH. THAT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO UP MORE. TUS 2333. HOLBROOK .TWC...NONE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 2 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-010700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 31 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 10 40 20 NW 10
GRAHAM 50 10 40 20 N 10
GREENLEE 50 10 40 20 N 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 40 5 30 15 NW 10
TOHONO O'ODHAM 30 10 20 10 N 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 10 20 10 NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 40 10 30 15 N 10
SANTA CRUZ 50 10 30 20 NW 10
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS GENERATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE SORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE
OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS EVENING AS
STORMS IN MEXICO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHSpecial weather statement, Jul 31, 12:45 PM MST, 5 hours 2 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-010700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST FRI JUL 31 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 10 40 20 NW 10
GRAHAM 50 10 40 20 N 10
GREENLEE 50 10 40 20 N 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 40 5 30 15 NW 10
TOHONO O'ODHAM 30 10 20 10 N 10
WESTERN PIMA 20 10 20 10 NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 40 10 30 15 N 10
SANTA CRUZ 50 10 30 20 NW 10
SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS GENERATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE SORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE
OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS EVENING AS
STORMS IN MEXICO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 5:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 47 min |
| Aug 1, 1:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 52 min |
| Aug 1, 3:53 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 47 min |
| Aug 1, 4:21 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 64 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.