Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 29, 1998Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 1998, 5:08 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 29, 1998, 5:08 PM MST (00:08 UTC)
Expired
Jul 29, 1998, 5:55 PM MST
In force
47 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-07-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 282 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-07-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -1 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
282 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-110 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2439 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 300008 RRA
SVRTUS
AZC003-300055-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
508 PM MST WED JUL 29 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 555 PM MST

* AT 505 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 19
  MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WILLCOX OR 4 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
  SUNStITES MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WAS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING 65 MPH WIND GUSTS...ONE INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL AND
  HEAVY RAIN.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SUNSITES                BY 528 PM MST

OKULSKI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 38 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST WED JUL 29 1998

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS MOVED BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR
CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DRY AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DECREASING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...MAJOR FACTOR FOR TUS AND VALLEY STORMS IS THAT DEWPOINT
IS GOING UP THIS AFTN AND THIS INDICATOR IS VERY RELIABLE FOR STORMS
IN THE VALLEY. AIR ADVECTING IN FROM DESERT SEEMS TO HAVE PLENTY OF
CAPE. CLOSE TO GOING WITH LIKELY/FFW FOR THIS EVENING BUT STILL
SITTING ON THE FENCE SOME. STORMS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN AREAS
WHERE IT HAS CLEARED...ONE DOWN IN MEX WITH 65 VIL. SO WILL UP POPS
TO HIGH SCT AND DROP TEMPS FOR THU IN ANTICIPATION OF BIG NIGHT.

MODELS FCST IN DRYING AND HAVE GONE TO LOW MONSOON FOR FRI. KIND OF
WONDER HOW WELL THE MODELS WILL DO WITH THE DRYING SINCE THEY DONT
EVEN KNOW ABOUT THE CURRENT MSTR. STILL WONT CHANGE WORDING IN
EXTENEDED.

TREND SHOULD BE BACK UP BY SUN. TUS 544. HOLBROOK

.TWC...NONE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-300700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED JUL 29 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
               AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          40          10          40         20     W  10
GRAHAM           40          10          40         20     W  10
GREENLEE         60          10          50         20     W  10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  40          15          50         20     NW 10
TOHONO OODHAM   40          15          50         10     NW 10
WESTERN PIMA     40          15          30         10     NW 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL  30          15          30         10     NW 10
SANTA CRUZ       60          10          50         20     NW 10

SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY. THREAT OF
BOTH SEVERE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

***THERE WILL BE NO ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS TODAY DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS***

END/CEC
Special weather statement, Jul 29, 12:45 PM MST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-300700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED JUL 29 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
               AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          40          10          40         20     W  10
GRAHAM           40          10          40         20     W  10
GREENLEE         60          10          50         20     W  10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  40          15          50         20     NW 10
TOHONO OODHAM   40          15          50         10     NW 10
WESTERN PIMA     40          15          30         10     NW 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL  30          15          30         10     NW 10
SANTA CRUZ       60          10          50         20     NW 10

SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY. THREAT OF
BOTH SEVERE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

***THERE WILL BE NO ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS TODAY DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS***

END/CEC
Local storm report, Jul 29, 4:05 PM MST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
405 PM MST WED JUL 29 1998

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0650 PM    SIERRA VISTA              AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/28/98   COCHISE                        DOWNED POWER LINES NEAR
                                          VETERANS MEMORIAL PARK

0655 PM    SIERRA VISTA              AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/28/98   COCHISE                        TREES BLOWN DOWN ON FRY
                                          BLVD

0655 PM    SIERRA VISTA              AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/28/98   COCHISE                        MOBILE HOME ROOF TORN OFF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 10:38 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCCochise92 min
Jul 30, 2:59 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCSanta Cruz2 hr
Jul 30, 4:27 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCCochise, Pima93 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.