Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 1998, 4:27 PM MST for Cochise County, Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 93 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 30, 1998, 4:27 PM MST (23:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 30, 1998, 6:00 PM MST
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
Counties Cochise County, AZ, Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 24 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 61 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -238 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2191 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -26 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 302328 FFWTUS AZC003-019-310100- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 427 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EXTREME WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA EXTREME EASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 600 PM MST * AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY. RAIN 7 MILES WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF BENSON WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ACROSS INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COUNTY LINE. OKULSKI
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 30, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998 SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIRMASSES TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY DECREASING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...TSTMS BLOWING AS EXPECTED WITH SLOW SRLY MOVEMENT. STILL NOT QUITE ORGANIZED YET AND EXPECTING STORMS TO MOVE OUT INTO VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...SLOW MOVERS SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS THERE. DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRI AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND BUT ERLYS SET UP AGAIN BY MON FOR RETURN OF MORE ACTIVITY. WILL GO TO LOW GRADE MONSOON FCST FOR NEXT SEVRL DAYS GIVEN MSTR CONSIDERATIONS. STILL THIS DOESNT MEAN WE CANT GET RAIN IN VALLEYS AND WITH TEMPS GOING UP CHANCE OF SVR DOWNBURST WILL ENTER INTO THE MIX. TUS 5222. .TWC...NONE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-310700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 15 50 25 W 5
GRAHAM 50 15 50 25 N 5
GREENLEE 60 15 50 25 NW 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 50 25 60 30 NW 5
TOHONO OODHAM 40 25 50 20 N 5
WESTERN PIMA 40 25 30 20 NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 40 25 40 20 NW 5
SANTA CRUZ 50 25 60 25 NW 5
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS. SLOW
AND ERATIC MOTION EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH A THREAT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHSpecial weather statement, Jul 30, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-310700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
*CONDITIONAL* *CONDITIONAL*
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COUNTY COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 50 15 50 25 W 5
GRAHAM 50 15 50 25 N 5
GREENLEE 60 15 50 25 NW 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 50 25 60 30 NW 5
TOHONO OODHAM 40 25 50 20 N 5
WESTERN PIMA 40 25 30 20 NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 40 25 40 20 NW 5
SANTA CRUZ 50 25 60 25 NW 5
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS. SLOW
AND ERATIC MOTION EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH A THREAT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/VPHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 5:08 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 47 min |
| Jul 29, 10:38 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise | 92 min |
| Jul 30, 2:59 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 2 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.