Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998

Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 30, 1998Cochise County, Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 1998, 4:27 PM MST for Cochise County, Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 93 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 30, 1998, 4:27 PM MST (23:27 UTC)
Expired
Jul 30, 1998, 6:00 PM MST
In force
93 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

Counties Cochise County, AZ, Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 24 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1998-07-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 61 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1998-07-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -4 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
61 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-238 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2191 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 302328
FFWTUS
AZC003-019-310100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
427 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
  EXTREME EASTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 600 PM MST

* AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY. RAIN 7 MILES WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
  OF BENSON WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
  ACROSS INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COUNTY LINE.

  OKULSKI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 30, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998

SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN MOIST
AND DRY AIRMASSES TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY DECREASING
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS BLOWING AS EXPECTED WITH SLOW SRLY MOVEMENT.
STILL NOT QUITE ORGANIZED YET AND EXPECTING STORMS TO MOVE OUT INTO
VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...SLOW MOVERS SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS THERE. DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRI AND FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BUT ERLYS SET UP AGAIN BY MON FOR RETURN OF MORE
ACTIVITY. WILL GO TO LOW GRADE MONSOON FCST FOR NEXT SEVRL DAYS
GIVEN MSTR CONSIDERATIONS. STILL THIS DOESNT MEAN WE CANT GET RAIN
IN VALLEYS AND WITH TEMPS GOING UP CHANCE OF SVR DOWNBURST WILL
ENTER INTO THE MIX. TUS 5222.

.TWC...NONE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-310700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
               AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          50          15          50         25     W  5
GRAHAM           50          15          50         25     N  5
GREENLEE         60          15          50         25     NW 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  50          25          60         30     NW 5
TOHONO OODHAM   40          25          50         20     N  5
WESTERN PIMA     40          25          30         20     NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL  40          25          40         20     NW 5
SANTA CRUZ       50          25          60         25     NW 5

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS. SLOW
AND ERATIC MOTION EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH A THREAT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/VPH
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 12:45 PM MST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-310700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST THU JUL 30 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
               AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          50          15          50         25     W  5
GRAHAM           50          15          50         25     N  5
GREENLEE         60          15          50         25     NW 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  50          25          60         30     NW 5
TOHONO OODHAM   40          25          50         20     N  5
WESTERN PIMA     40          25          30         20     NE 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL  40          25          40         20     NW 5
SANTA CRUZ       50          25          60         25     NW 5

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS. SLOW
AND ERATIC MOTION EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH A THREAT.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/VPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 5:08 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise47 min
Jul 29, 10:38 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCCochise92 min
Jul 30, 2:59 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCSanta Cruz2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.