Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 22, 1998Graham County, Greenlee County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 22, 1998, 2:43 PM MST for Graham County, Greenlee County, Arizona. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 22, 1998, 2:43 PM MST (21:43 UTC)
Expired
Jul 22, 1998, 3:45 PM MST
In force
62 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

Counties Graham County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1998-07-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 844 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1998-07-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 52 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
844 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1063 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
2 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

088 
WUUS1 KTUS 222145 RRA
SVRTUS
AZC009-011-222245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
243 PM MST WED JUL 22 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
  SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 345 PM MST

* AT 250 PM MST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GUTHRIE.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCATED FROM GUTHRIE SOUTHWARD.
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS IS LARGE HAIL ABOUT 1.0 INCH IN DIAMETER.


MCCOLLUM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 22, 2:30 PM MST, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 2:30 PM MST, 13 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST WED JUL 22 1998

SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH AND WEST
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND. A MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY WET AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE REGION IS CAUGHT IN A "SQUEEZE PLAY" BETWEEN
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THIS MORNINGS FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS TURNED TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN. NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ON THE EDGES OF THE STRATIFORM BAND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THESE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

NORMALLY ONE WOULD CONSIDER THE REST OF TONIGHT AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY A DOWN PERIOD DUE TO TODAYS CONVECTION. HOWEVER THERE ARE
PROBABLY MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH CLEARING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO FIRE UP NEW
STORMS. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL NOT FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE HIGH ALOFT DRIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD TOWAvRD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS WEEKEND. THE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH PERHAPS A
TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE. TUS 6544. OKULSKI

.TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONE 31 UNTIL 10 PM MST.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 11:37 AM MST, 3 hours 6 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-230700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST WED JUL 22 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                        *CONDITIONAL*    *CONDITIONAL*
                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
COUNTY        COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          75          10          85         45     NW  5
GRAHAM           65          10          75         35     NW  5
GREENLEE         60          15          60         25     NW  5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  80          10          85         45     NW  5
TOHONO OODHAM   80          10          85         45     NW  5
WESTERN PIMA     40          15          50         25     NW  5
SOUTHEAST PINAL  80          10          85         45     NW  5
SANTA CRUZ       80          10          90         50     NW  5

SYNOPSIS...***HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT***
AN AREA OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS
AREA...INCLUDING THE TUCSON METROPOLITAN AREA. ONE INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR STORMS WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
NOT UNCOMMON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY FOR
PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES UNAFFECTED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION.

*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/RJO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 22, 5:30 AM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPinal3 hr
Jul 22, 9:16 AM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima, Pinal3 hr
Jul 22, 9:47 AM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCSanta Cruz3 hr
Jul 22, 3:45 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise, Graham50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.