Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998

Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 7, 1998Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 7, 1998, 2:14 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 1998, 2:14 PM MST (21:14 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 1998, 3:15 PM MST
In force
61 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1998-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 217 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 1998-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
217 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-67 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1192 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 072114
FFWTUS
AZC003-072215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
214 PM MST TUE JUL 7 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD W<ARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 315 PM MST

* AT 214 PM... SPOTTERS INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY
  RAIN NEAR BISBEE...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH.



  VPH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 7, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE JUL 7 1998

SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...I JUST CANT FIND ANY REASON TO DRY US OUT. AT LEAST THE
TREND FOR THE NOCTURNAL STORMS APPEARS OVR. BUT WE DONT NEED MUCH
HEATING FOR TODAY TO GET STORMS GOING AND WITH NRLY FLOW STORMS
FORMING ON THE RIM SHOULD MOVE DOWN HERE. MAYBE A LITTLE MID LVL
DRYING AS TROF DROPS DOWN ALONG WEST COAST IN NEXT 48 HRS. THIS MAY
PUT US IN AN UP DAY DOWN DAY SCENARIO FOR LOW DESERTS BUT EXPECT
MTNS TO BE ACTIVE EACH DAY.

FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD PATTERN LUKS FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE. TUS 553. HOLBROOK

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 7, 12:48 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-080700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 06 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
              COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          60           5          50         30     S 10
GRAHAM           60           5          50         30     S 10
GREENLEE         70           5          60         40     S 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  70           5          80         50     SW 10
TOHONO OODHAM   50           5          80         50     SW 10
WESTERN PIMA     40           5          40         30     SW 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL  60           5          80         50     SW 10
SANTA CRUZ       90           5          70         50     S  10

SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND UNLIKE DAY AFTER EVENTS IN THE PAST
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE VALLEYS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START OVER THE MOUNTAINS FIRST
AND BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE OPEN DESERT. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TONS OF
MOISTURE ADD UP TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. EASTERN ZONES MAY
BE SLOW TO GO DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK. NO GRAPHIC PRODUCT
TODAY.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 5:00 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCGraham2 hr
Jul 7, 12:50 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima95 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.