Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 7, 1998, 2:14 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 7, 1998, 2:14 PM MST (21:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 7, 1998, 3:15 PM MST
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 217 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -67 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1192 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 3 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 072114 FFWTUS AZC003-072215- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 214 PM MST TUE JUL 7 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD W<ARNING FOR... SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 315 PM MST * AT 214 PM... SPOTTERS INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR BISBEE...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. VPH
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 7, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 930 AM MST TUE JUL 7 1998 SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DISCUSSION...I JUST CANT FIND ANY REASON TO DRY US OUT. AT LEAST THE TREND FOR THE NOCTURNAL STORMS APPEARS OVR. BUT WE DONT NEED MUCH HEATING FOR TODAY TO GET STORMS GOING AND WITH NRLY FLOW STORMS FORMING ON THE RIM SHOULD MOVE DOWN HERE. MAYBE A LITTLE MID LVL DRYING AS TROF DROPS DOWN ALONG WEST COAST IN NEXT 48 HRS. THIS MAY PUT US IN AN UP DAY DOWN DAY SCENARIO FOR LOW DESERTS BUT EXPECT MTNS TO BE ACTIVE EACH DAY. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD PATTERN LUKS FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. TUS 553. HOLBROOK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 12:48 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-080700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE JUL 06 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 60 5 50 30 S 10
GRAHAM 60 5 50 30 S 10
GREENLEE 70 5 60 40 S 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 70 5 80 50 SW 10
TOHONO OODHAM 50 5 80 50 SW 10
WESTERN PIMA 40 5 40 30 SW 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL 60 5 80 50 SW 10
SANTA CRUZ 90 5 70 50 S 10
SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND UNLIKE DAY AFTER EVENTS IN THE PAST
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE VALLEYS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START OVER THE MOUNTAINS FIRST
AND BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE OPEN DESERT. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TONS OF
MOISTURE ADD UP TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. EASTERN ZONES MAY
BE SLOW TO GO DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK. NO GRAPHIC PRODUCT
TODAY.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 5:00 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Graham | 2 hr |
| Jul 7, 12:50 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 95 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.