Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998

Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 6, 1998Graham County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 6, 1998, 5:00 PM MST for Graham County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 6, 1998, 5:00 PM MST (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Jul 6, 1998, 7:00 PM MST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Whole counties

County Graham County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 46 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 1998-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 26 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
46 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-128 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1242 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 070001
FFWTUS
AZC009-070200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
500 PM MST MON JUL 6 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 700 PM MST

* AT 450 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 10 MILES EAST OF SAFFORD ALONG
  HIGHWAY 191... MOVING SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

  JRG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST MON JUL 6 1998

SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...DONT SEE ANY REASON WHY WE WONT HAVE NOCTURNAL
ACTRIVITY AGAIN AND HAVE LEFT PRECIP IN TONIGHT. MID LVL CIRCULATION
SE OF THE STATE IS GUIDING STORMS SOME AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
STORMS HAS SLOWED REGENERATION. BUT TUS ALREADY BACK INTO 80S AND
WITH A LITTLE LUCK MAY HAVE ENUF CAPE FOR MORE STORMS.

FCST IS FOR SLOW DRYING TREND BUT STILL DONT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGE IN
FLOW TO DO THIS BUT WILL PLA8Y THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VERSUS PERSISTENCE
METHOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY FCSTR CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. TUS 4553.
HOLBROOK

.TWC...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:11 PM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SUN JUL 05 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
              COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          70           5          60         40     N 5
GRAHAM           70           5          40         40     N 5
GREENLEE         70           5          60         50     N 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  90           5          40         50     N 10
TOHONO OODHAM   50           5          40         50     NW 5
WESTERN PIMA     50           5          40         30     NW 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL  60           5          40         30     NW 5
SANTA CRUZ       90           5          50         30     NW 5

SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD OUT FROM THE
TUCSON METRO AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CAPE LEFT
OVER FOR A RECURRENCE OF STORMS IN TUCSON METRO BUT AIR MASS IS
ALMOST TROPICAL AND WITH SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SOME STORMS MAY
FORM AGAIN. WE COULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER NIGHT TIME EVENT BUT BELIEVE
THIS IS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIUOS NIGHTS. SLOW MOVEMNET OF STORMS
MAKES FLASH FLOODING BIGGEST THREAT. NOTE: NO GRAPHICS TODAY.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML

END/
Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:46 PM MST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
246 PM MST MON JUL 06 1998

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 AM    TUCSON                    AZ   FLOODING
07/06/98   PIMA                           SEVERAL REPORTS OF
                                          FLOODING.

1230 PM    BISBEE                    AZ   FLOODING
07/06/98   COCHISE                        WATER TO BUMPER ON CARS
                                          MANY STREET CLOSURES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 7, 12:50 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima95 min
Jul 7, 2:14 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCCochise61 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.