Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 6, 1998, 5:00 PM MST for Graham County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 1998, 5:00 PM MST (00:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 6, 1998, 7:00 PM MST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Graham County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -128 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1242 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KTUS 070001 FFWTUS AZC009-070200- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 500 PM MST MON JUL 6 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EXTREME EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA * UNTIL 700 PM MST * AT 450 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 10 MILES EAST OF SAFFORD ALONG HIGHWAY 191... MOVING SOUTHWEST 15 MPH. JRG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST MON JUL 6 1998 SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. DISCUSSION...DONT SEE ANY REASON WHY WE WONT HAVE NOCTURNAL ACTRIVITY AGAIN AND HAVE LEFT PRECIP IN TONIGHT. MID LVL CIRCULATION SE OF THE STATE IS GUIDING STORMS SOME AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS SLOWED REGENERATION. BUT TUS ALREADY BACK INTO 80S AND WITH A LITTLE LUCK MAY HAVE ENUF CAPE FOR MORE STORMS. FCST IS FOR SLOW DRYING TREND BUT STILL DONT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGE IN FLOW TO DO THIS BUT WILL PLA8Y THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VERSUS PERSISTENCE METHOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY FCSTR CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. TUS 4553. HOLBROOK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:11 PM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
AZZ019-026>030-060700-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST SUN JUL 05 1998...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED
AREAL PROBABILITY RAIN GREATER THAN STORM
COVERAGE OF SEVERE 1.00 2.00 MOTION
COCHISE 70 5 60 40 N 5
GRAHAM 70 5 40 40 N 5
GREENLEE 70 5 60 50 N 5
TUCSON/ERN PIMA 90 5 40 50 N 10
TOHONO OODHAM 50 5 40 50 NW 5
WESTERN PIMA 50 5 40 30 NW 5
SOUTHEAST PINAL 60 5 40 30 NW 5
SANTA CRUZ 90 5 50 30 NW 5
SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD OUT FROM THE
TUCSON METRO AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CAPE LEFT
OVER FOR A RECURRENCE OF STORMS IN TUCSON METRO BUT AIR MASS IS
ALMOST TROPICAL AND WITH SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SOME STORMS MAY
FORM AGAIN. WE COULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER NIGHT TIME EVENT BUT BELIEVE
THIS IS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIUOS NIGHTS. SLOW MOVEMNET OF STORMS
MAKES FLASH FLOODING BIGGEST THREAT. NOTE: NO GRAPHICS TODAY.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH
NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12:45 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://NIMBO.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/SWO/SWO.SHTML
END/Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:46 PM MST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
246 PM MST MON JUL 06 1998
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0750 AM TUCSON AZ FLOODING
07/06/98 PIMA SEVERAL REPORTS OF
FLOODING.
1230 PM BISBEE AZ FLOODING
07/06/98 COCHISE WATER TO BUMPER ON CARS
MANY STREET CLOSURESThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 12:50 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 95 min |
| Jul 7, 2:14 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Cochise | 61 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.