Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 072104
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT TUE APR 7 1998

LOTS OF SC ROTATING ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON HAS KEPT PM TEMPS
DOWN ALONG THE KS BORDER.  EXPECT THAT CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.  MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MASS FIELDS...BUT
PRECIP FIELDS AND GUIDANCE POPS WERE A BIT ERRATIC.  FEEL THAT
AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA.
WILL MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR SHRA TOMORROW.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA...SFC PRESSURES START TO RISE WITH STRONG NW WINDS
DEVELOPING WED NIGHT.  SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURS MORN...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN
ZONES.  GOOD LOW-LEVEL CAA IS ALSO NOTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO WILL
GENERALLY GO AT OR BELOW THE LOWEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  THE EXTENDED
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MRF HOLDS
NEXT SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID = 19
TUL   47  65  45  62 /  10  20   0   0
FSM   50  71  46  61 /   0  30  10   0
MLC   46  70  46  62 /   0  20   0   0
BVO   44  62  42  61 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   47  68  45  59 /   0  30   0   0
IDB   53  73  49  64 /   0  30  10   0
BYV   47  68  45  59 /   0  30   0   0
MIO   45  63  43  57 /  10  20   0   0
MKO   47  65  45  62 /  10  20   0   0
F10   47  65  45  62 /  10  20   0   0
HHW   53  73  49  64 /   0  30  10   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.