Severe Thunderstorm Warning 377, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 020800
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT THU JUL 2 1998

PROBLEMS OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?
TEMPERATURES

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPING
IN AN AREA OF HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS AND
HELPED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO WATCHING THE
WESTERN KANSAS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH MAY TAKE A TURN
SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A REPEAT OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOPING THE SUN COMES OUT A BIT EARLIER TODAY THOUGH SO TEMPERATURES
WARM A BIT MORE.

FRONT EXPECTED TO REFORM TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LESSENING ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. MAY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION
FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAINLY IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE AREAS. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM THAT MUCH SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AND MAY AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE IN TEXAS BUT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD
HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD LESSEN AGAIN BY MONDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.

WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK BETTER IN THE LATER PERIODS WITH INCREASED DAYTIME
SUNSHINE.

FCSTID = 5
TUL   88  73  94  75 /  50  30  20  20
FSM   90  71  94  73 /  40  20  20  20
MLC   90  73  94  75 /  30  20  20  20
BVO   88  71  94  73 /  50  30  20  20
FYV   87  68  90  70 /  40  40  30  20
IDB   96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   87  67  90  69 /  40  40  30  20
MIO   87  70  92  72 /  50  40  30  20
MKO   88  71  94  73 /  50  30  20  20
F10   88  73  94  75 /  50  30  20  20
HHW   96  73  96  73 /  20  20  20  20

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

PLATE

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 1998

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  WIND
SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME.

IN ADDITION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  IF THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT
COURSE...IT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS THAT
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  ALSO...DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS MAINLY NORTH OF A PAWHUSKA TO
FORT SMITH LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMA*TION FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS MORNING.  AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AROUND 100 PM.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU JUL 2 1998

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  WIND
SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME.

IN ADDITION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  IF THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT
COURSE...IT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS THAT
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  ALSO...DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS MAINLY NORTH OF A PAWHUSKA TO
FORT SMITH LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMA*TION FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS MORNING.  AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AROUND 100 PM.