Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 182111
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?

CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS E OK ALONG SFC FRONT...AND WOULD
EXPECT FURTHUR DEVELOPMENT IN SERN OK ZNS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN INSTABILITY AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
MODELS PROG FRONT TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS NW AR EXTENDING THROUGH SE
OK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WASHING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AFTER
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NRN ZNS TOMORROW NIGHT...ETA DUMPS SOME PRECIP IN
RESPONSE TO A WK S/W BRUSHING THE AREA. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE LTR PDS. H5 RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE FA WITH
TIME...THIS AND WARMING H7 TEMPS LOOKS LIKE DRY HOT WX FOR WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY WITH THE NRN ZNS GETTING A SLIGHT MENTION SUN
NITE AND EARLY MON MORN AS MODELS HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION(LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING).

FCSTID = 23
TUL   71  94  74  94 /  30  10  20   0
FSM   72  94  72  95 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   72  94  73  94 /  40  10   0   0
BVO   67  94  72  94 /  30  10  20   0
FYV   67  92  69  91 /  40  10  20   0
IDB   73  94  72  95 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   67  92  69  91 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   70  94  73  93 /  40  10  20   0
MKO   72  94  73  94 /  40  10   0   0
F10   71  94  74  94 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   73  94  72  95 /  40  10   0   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

---------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  3 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  0 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOPEKA TO NORTH OF PONCA CITY
TO ALTUS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE HAD BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE. IN KANSAS THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EAST WHILE
THE OKLAHOMA PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 PM AND SHOULD QUICKLY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS.

LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG-LIVED OR WIDESPREAD SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

AFTER SUNSET...THE STORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HERE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN THE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND BE
READY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.