Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 091554
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

COMPLEX SFC PATTERN THIS MRNG WITH ONE LOW ACRS NW OK...TRIPLE PT LOW
ALG RED RVR WITH WM FNT EXTENDING E THRU NE TX.  BAND OF TSRA
CONTINUE ACRS ERN OK...WITH ADDITIONAL DVLPMT THE PAST HR ALG LEAD
GUST FNT.  UPR LOW AND ASSOCD COLD POOL OVR WRN OK WL MV INTO NW AR
BY 00Z...SO COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DVLP LTR THIS AFTN.  WL KP
HIGHEST POPS AND MENTION OF HVY RN ALG AND N OF TRACK OF H5 LOW.

UPDATE SHUD BE OUT BY 1130 AM.

18

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TULSA TO
FAYETTEVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317 IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR WICHITA FALLS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AFTER 600 PM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA SHOULD CONSIDER ACTIVATION BY 800 AM.
GROUPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TULSA TO
FAYETTEVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317 IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR WICHITA FALLS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AFTER 600 PM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA SHOULD CONSIDER ACTIVATION BY 800 AM.
GROUPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 AM    OAK GROVE                 AR   1 INCH HAIL
05/09/98   CARROLL                        QUARTER SIZE HAIL
                                          COVERING THE GROUND

0915 AM    15 S HUNSTVILLE           AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/98   MADISON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0856 AMv    BERRYVILLE                AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/98   CARROLL

0945 AM    METALTON                  AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/98   CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0856 AMv    BERRYVILLE                AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/98   CARROLL

0945 AM    METALTON                  AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/98   CARROLL