Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 090913
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN MEANS A RAPID CHANGE FROM WET TO DRY
IN A HURRY THESE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AGREE WITH DISCUSSIONS THAT ETA
AND AVN HAVE THE BEST HANDLES ON THE SITUATION...SO WENT WITH THEM.

ONLY DISAGREEMENT I MIGHT HAVE IS WITH THE QUICK CESSATION OF PRECIP
IN WRN ZONES TONIGHT.  KEPT POPS HIER THAN MOS LATER INTO SAT NIGHT
DUE TO S/WV MOVING DOWN BACK SIDE OF RIDGE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND
REMAINING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS.  GRANTED...VORT MAX IS GOING INTO
CONFLUENT ZONE...BUT IVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS BEFORE.  WILL CARRY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSRA SWINGING THROUGH SAT EVENING AND NIGHT.
THIS APPLIES MOSTLY TO NWRN ZONES.  NW AR SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF EXITING SYSTEM TONIGHT...SO HIER POPS MERITED THERE.

WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NRN OK ZONES...BUT QUICK
EXIT OF S/WV MAY PRECLUDE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING AMOUNTS.  STILL
THOUGHT IT WAS ENUF TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MOS TEMPS.  NUMBERS BELOW ARE PRELIMINARY.
STILL TINKERING.

FCSTID = 27
TUL   65  55  77  59 /  90  30   0   0
FSM   68  58  78  55 /  80  40   0   0
MLC   69  58  78  58 /  50  30   0   0
BVO   65  55  77  59 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   66  56  76  53 /  90  50   0   0
IDB   75  59  81  59 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   69  56  76  54 /  90  80  20   0
MIO   63  54  76  57 /  90  70   0   0
MKO   69  57  78  57 /  90  40   0   0
F10   65  55  77  60 /  90  40   0   0
HHW   75  59  81  59 /  40  20   0   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TULSA TO
FAYETTEVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317 IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR WICHITA FALLS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AFTER 600 PM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA SHOULD CONSIDER ACTIVATION BY 800 AM.
GROUPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TULSA TO
FAYETTEVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317 IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED NEAR WICHITA FALLS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS AREA MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AFTER 600 PM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA SHOULD CONSIDER ACTIVATION BY 800 AM.
GROUPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.